Recent Changes in Monetary Policy in Pakistan

Table of contents

Monetary policy

Monetary policy is the regulation of volume of money supply, by the central bank in order to achieve relative price stability. If the economy is heating up then the Central bank can increase the bank rate or the reserve requirement. Whereas when there is recession, then the bank rate is reduced. Instruments for the Regulation of Money Supply Open market operations. Cash Reserve requirement Statutory Liquidity Ratio Credit Ceiling Open market operations: It is the buying and selling of government securities. If the M.S is high then the securities are sold so that people buy it and money goes to the SBP and if the M. S is low then you buy securities in this way Money supply increases.

Cash Reserve Requirement

It is a requirement in which all the commercial bank have to keep a percentage of cash with the SBP. Currently, it is around 7%.

  • Statutory Liquidity Ratio: It is a requirement in which each bank has to maintain a certain reserve requirement to strengthen their liquidity position.
  • Credit Ceiling: It is the fixation of the upper limit; quotas are assigned to different banks.

Inflation trend in Pakistan (2004-2009)

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the core inflation in the year (2005) was 8. per cent which has almost doubled since the last year (2004) in which the inflation rate was 3. 8 per cent. During this year the non-governmental borrowing increased by 30 per cent. The two main reasons for high inflation during this period were because of excessive government borrowings and the price of wheat. According to the State Bank of Pakistan, government estimated that the inflation rate in the next year would range between 7. 7 and 8. 3 per cent.

During the year (2006) there was a decrease in the total inflation of the country (general and food) from 9. 3 to 7. 9 per cent and 12. 5 per cent to 6. per cent respectively. The government took several major steps to bring the inflation down during this year as well by tightening the monetary policy and augmenting the supply of essential commodities through liberalization of import regime. As a result the general inflation declined from 9. 3 per cent (2004-05) to 7. 9 per cent (2005-06) & the non-governmental borrowing in the year 2006 became 23 per cent. During 2007 the core inflation reduced from 7. 5 per cent to 5. 9 per cent, due to tight monetary policy. According to the SBP the food inflation increased from 6. 9 per cent (2006) to 10. per cent (2007) because of supply side constraints in which the prices of some key food staples (including wheat, rice, vegetable, ghee etc,) were increased. Whereas comparatively the non-food prices grew at a slower pace since last year and the general Inflation (CPI) declined from 7. 9 per cent to 7. 8 per cent. The inflationary trend in the food prices during the year (2008) increased to 17. 6 per cent as compared to the last year in which the food inflation was 10. 3 per cent, affecting people living standards of low and fixed income groups.

The non-food inflation had the same increasing trend as in the year (2007), which was 6. per cent and during the year (2008) was 7. 9 per cent. Although the core inflation was reduced to 5. 9 per cent but during this year it went back to 8. 4 per cent because of the global increase in some commodity, higher utility tariff and by local supply and demand driven prices. Inflation during (2008) indicates that the prices of a few commodities (18) essential food items registered sharp increase particularly during the second half of the fiscal year (2008). Other significant contributors to (2008) upward inflationary trend included house rent, which is the index that measures the cost of construction in Pakistan, racing to 11. per cent by April (2008). The current fiscal year commenced with ease in headlines compared to the same month of previous fiscal year.

The consumer price inflation annually was 11. 2 per cent during July (2009) as against 24. 3 per cent in July (2008) and 13. 1 per cent in the previous month. A major increase in the core inflation was witnessed in July (2009) of 17. 6 per cent as compared to July (2008) 8. 4 per cent. The food inflation increased by 6. 1 per cent during this fiscal year. The main reason for this high inflation was due to low export growth relative to import, high oil prices and inadequate foreign capital inflow.

Conclusively, one can say that inflation adversely affects the overall economic growth, the financial sector development and exploit the vulnerable poor segments of the population. Inflation also decreases the real income and induces uncertainty. Considering such undesirable impacts of inflation on the economy, there’s a consensus among the world leading central banks that the price stability is going to be the prime objective of monetary policy and the central banks are committed to lower the inflation in the economy.

Hence the State bank of Pakistan should adopt inflation as their main focus of monetary policy, by targeting inflation explicitly or implicitly as and when required.

Effectiveness of monetary policy statement in Pakistan

Economic policies aim to increase the welfare of the general public and monetary policy supports this broad objective by focusing its efforts to promote price stability. Embedded in this objective is the belief that persistent inflation would compromise the long term economic prospects of the country.

The objective of monetary policy in Pakistan, as laid down in the SBP Act of 1956, is to achieve the targets of inflation and growth set annually by the government. In pursuit of this mandate, SBP formulates the country’s monetary policy that is consistent with these announced targets. In my remarks today, I plan to provide perspective on: First, why central banks focus on price stability? Second, how the monetary policy transmission mechanisms work? Third, what are the principal features of Pakistan’s monetary policy framework?

Fourth, selected thoughts on effectiveness of Pakistan’s monetary policy framework Finally, what measures are needed to improve the effectiveness of the monetary policy framework in Pakistan? These questions have been a subject of much debate lately, as monetary tightening – an inevitable policy response for regaining macroeconomic stability – has aroused anxiety but better public understanding of this question will help them to appreciate central bank’s monetary policy stance.

Why Focus on Price Stability?

Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

The monetary transmission mechanism refers to a process through which monetary policy decisions affect the level of economic activity in the economy and the inflation rate. Understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is crucial for appropriate design and efficient conduct of monetary policy. As monetary policy actions affect policy variables with a considerable lag and with high degree of variability and uncertainty, it is important to predict the possible impact and extent of monetary policy actions on the real variables. Thus, by its very nature, monetary policy tends to be forward-looking.

It is also important to know which transmission channels are more effective in terms of transmitting changes in monetary policy actions to ultimate policy goals. Since various financial sector developments particularly regarding introduction of new financial products, technological changes, institutional strengthening, and expectations about future policy, etc can potentially change economic effects of the monetary policy measures, there is a need to regularly update, empirically test and reinterpret monetary policy transmission channels.

The impact of monetary policy is perceived to transmit in to the real economic activity through five channels.

  • The first channel and most widely studied and understood channel of monetary policy transmission relies on the link between changes in the short-term nominal interest rate (induced by changes in the policy rate) and the long-term real interest rate that ultimately affect components of aggregate demand such as consumption and investment in an economy. As such, it is the changes in the long-term real interest rates that have its impact on aggregate consumption, business investment and other components of aggregate demand.
  • The second channel, known as the credit channel, involves changes in monetary policy that not only affects the ability of firms to borrow money (by affecting their net worth) but also affects the ability of banks to lend money. The strength of this channel depends on the degree to which the central bank has allowed banks to extend loans and the dependence of borrowers on bank loans. These factors are clearly influenced by the structure of the financial system and its regulation.
  • The third channel of monetary policy transmission focuses on asset prices (other than the interest rate) such as the market value of securities (bonds and equities) and prices of real estate. A policy-induced change in the nominal interest rate affects the price of bonds and stocks that may change the market value of firms relative to the replacement cost of capital, affecting investment. Moreover, a change in the prices of securities entails a change in wealth which can affect the consumption of households. Fourth, a policy-induced change in the domestic interest rate also affects the exchange rate that in turn affects the foreign financial flows, net exports and thus aggregate demand. The strength of the exchange rate channel depends on the responsiveness of the exchange rate to monetary shocks, the degree of openness of the economy, sensitivity of foreign private inflows and net exports to exchange rate variations, and the net worth of firms and thus their borrowing capacity if they have taken exposure to foreign currency. Moreover, exchange rate changes lead to changes in the domestic price of imported consumption goods and imported production inputs affecting inflation directly.
  • Since expectations influence the inflation dynamics, there is a fifth channel that is based on the economic agents’ expectations of the future prospects of the economy and likely stance of the monetary policy. According to this ‘expectations channel’, most economic variables are determined in a forward-looking manner and are affected by the expected onetary policy actions. Thus, a consistent, credible, and transparent monetary policy can potentially affect the likely path of the economy by simply affecting expectations. Monetary Policy Framework in Pakistan Considering the economic and financial market structure in Pakistan, SBP has for sometime pursued a monetary targeting regime with broad money supply (M2) as a nominal anchor to achieve the objective of controlling inflation without any prejudice to growth.

The process of monetary policy formulation usually begins at the start of the fiscal year when SBP sets a target of M2 growth in line with government’s targets of inflation and growth (usually in the month of May) and an estimation of money demand in the economy. The basic idea is to keep the money supply close to its estimated demand level, as both a significant excess and a shortfall may lead to considerable deviations in actual outcomes of inflation and real GDP growth from their respective targets.

Underlying this framework are two strong assumptions: first, there is a strong and reliable relationship between the goal variable (inflation or real GDP) and M2; and second, the SBP can control growth in M2. While containing the M2 growth close to its target level is the key consideration in the current monetary framework, the composition of the money supply does matter and at times requires policy actions even if these actions lead to a deviation in monetary growth from its target level.

To understand this point, it is necessary to know the major components of money supply and their relative importance. Net foreign Assets (NFA) and Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking system are the two major components of money supply. The NFA is the excess of foreign exchange inflows over outflows to the banking system, or in other terms it is a reflection of underlying trends in the country’s external Balance of Payment (BoP) position. It is estimated by the projected values of all major external transactions such trade, workers’ remittances; debt servicing, foreign investment, and debt flows etc.

The NDA of the banking system, which primarily consists of credit to the government and the private sector, reflects changes in the fiscal and the real sectors of the economy, If is estimated as a residual of M2 and the NFA. Further break-up of NDA is estimated on the basis of projected credit needs of the government and the private sector. NOW coming to the importance of these components of the money supply, depletion in NFA is generally considered as an unhealthy development.

Sharp NFA depletion reflects worsening BOP position and a pressure on exchange rate. In such a case, a higher NDA growth, though helps in expanding M2 to reach ifs target level, may further deteriorate external accounts, sharper depreciation of local currency, and higher depletion of country’s foreign exchange reserves. Although since FY07, only the indicative M2 growth target is being announced, SBP also takes into consideration the causative factors for monetary expansion while pursing this target.

Considering the changes in monetary aggregates and other economic variables, the changes in monetary policy are signaled through adjustments in the policy discount rate (3-day repo rate). Further, the changes in the policy rate are complemented by appropriate liquidity management mainly through Open Market Operations (OMOs) and if required changes in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) and Statutory Liquid Reserve requirement (SLR) are also made. ” Significance of various channels that transmit the monetary policy shocks in Pakistan to the real economy has been analyzed by few economists.

Ahmad et al. (2005) found that credit channel is the most ‘important conduit for transmitting monetary policy actions to the real economic activity. Evidence confirms transmission through the active asset price channel and exchange rate channel. According to this study, monetary policy shocks impact real output after a lag of 7 to 11 months. Tasneem and Waheed (2006), on the other hand, investigated whether different sectors of the economy respond differently to monetary shocks.

The presence of sector wise differences in the monetary transmission mechanism has profound implications for macroeconomic management as the central bank then has to weigh the varying consequences of its actions on different sectors. Investigating the transmission of changes in interest rate to seven sub sectors of the economy, the authors found evidence supporting sector-specific variation in the real effects of monetary policy. They found that the interest rate shock on manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance sectors transmit after a lag of 6 to 12 months.

On the other hand, monetary policy shocks have negligible impact on agriculture, mining and quarrying, construction and ownership of dwelling sectors. Generally, historical evidence does reflect that Pakistan has been a high inflation and high interest economy given its inherent structural weaknesses. The role and effectiveness of monetary policy appears more visible in the 2000s when financial sector reforms started bearing fruits in terms of a more market based money and foreign exchange markets.

Entering the 21sf century, the loose monetary policy stance in the face of low inflation, low growth and low twin deficits, along with structural measures to open up the economy and alleviate some first round constraints, triggered the economy on a long-term growth trajectory of above 7 percent. Monetary policy stance was however altered as the inflationary pressures started to build up in 2005. At the end of the fiscal year, the economy, which had been showing sustained steady growth since FY01, registered a historically high level of growth (9 percent), average inflation rose sharply (9. percent) and the external current account balance turned into deficit (-1. 4 percent of GDP) Coinciding with these developments, the fiscal module started to show signs of stress as the fiscal balance was converted into a deficit and the stock of external debt and liabilities, which had been declining since FY00 after the Paris Club rescheduling, began increasing. These indicators largely capture the high and growing aggregate demand in the economy on account of sustained increase in peoples’ income.

With the emerging domestic and global price pressures, SBP tightened its monetary policy after a prolonged gap of a few years. The efforts to rein-in inflation, however, proved less effective due to a rebound in international commodity prices and a rise in domestic food prices later on. The rise in the international commodity prices, particularly oil, exacerbated the fight against inflation. The international oil prices (Arabian Light) rose from US$27. 1 at end 2004 to US$50. 9 at end 2006, whereas international food prices rose by 24, 24 and 21 percent during 2004, 2005 and 2006 respectively.

Realizing the complications of monetary management and adverse global and domestic economic developments, the implementation of SBP monetary policy during FY06 varied significantly from the preceding fiscal years. In addition to the rise in the policy rate, the central bank focused on the short-end of the yield curve, draining excess liquidity from the interbank money market and pushing up short-tenor rates. Consequently, not only did the overnight rates remain close to the discount rate through most of the year, the volatility in these rates also declined.

These tight monetary conditions along with the Government’s administrative measures to control food inflation helped in scaling down average inflation from 9. 3 percent in FY05 to 7. 9 percent in FY06, within the 8. 0 percent annual target. This was certainly an encouraging development, particularly as if was achieved without affecting economic growth as the real GDP growth remained strong at 6. 6 percent in FY06. Further Strengthening of Tight Monetary Policy For FY07, the government set an inflation target of 6. 5 percent.

To achieve this, a further moderation in aggregate demand during FY07 was required as the core inflation witnessed a relatively smaller decline in FY06, indicating that demand-side inflationary pressures were strong. In this perspective, SBP further tightened its monetary policy in July 2006 raising the CRR and SLR for the scheduled banks; and its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 9. 5 percent. Moreover, proactive liquidity management helped in transmitting the monetary tightening signals to key interest rates in the economy.

For instance, the Karachi Inter Bank Offer Rate (KIBOR) of 6 months tenor increased from 9. 6 percent in June 2006 to 10. 02 percent at end-June 2007 and the banks’ weighted average lending and deposits rates (on outstanding amount) increased by 0. 93 percentage points and 1. 1 percentage points, respectively, during FY07. In retrospect, it appears evident that monetary tightening in FY07 did not put any adverse impact on economic growth, as not only was the real GDP growth target of 7. 0 percent for FY07 was met, the growth was quite broad based.

At the same time, the impact of the monetary tightening was most evident in the continued deceleration in core inflation during FY07. One measure of core inflation, the non-food non-energy CPI, continued its downtrend from YoY high of 7. 8 percent in October 2005, to 6. 3 percent at end-FY06, and to 5. 1 percent by the end of FY07. However, much of the gains from the tight monetary policy on overall CPI inflation were offset by the unexpected rise in food inflation. On the downside, however, broad money supply (M2) grew by 19. 3 percent during FY07, exceeding the annual target by 5. percentage points. Slippages in money supply growth largely stemmed from an expansion in NFA due to the higher than expected foreign exchange inflows. Equally stressful was the impact of Government borrowings from the central bank during the course of the year. The pressure from the fiscal account was due to mismatch in its external budgetary inflows and expenditures. With the privatization inflows and the receipts from a sovereign debt offering at end-FY07, the Government managed to end the year with retirement of central bank borrowings, on the margin.

By end-FYO7, SBP holdings of government papers were still around Rs 452 billion, despite a net retirement of Rs 56. 0 billion during the year. Another major aberration in FY07 emanated from the high level of SBP refinancing extended, for both working capital and long-term investment, to exporters. Aside from monetary management complexities, these schemes have been distorting the incentive structure in the economy. FY08 and Beginning of FY09: More Challenging FY08 was an exceptionally difficult year.

The domestic macroeconomic and political vulnerabilities coupled with a very challenging global environment caused slippages in macroeconomic targets by a wide margin. After a relatively long period of macroeconomic stability and prosperity, the global economy faced multifarious challenges:

  • hit by the sub prime mortgage crisis in U. S in 2007, the international financial markets had been in turmoil, the impact of which was felt across markets and continents;
  • rising global commodity prices, with crude oil and food staples prices skyrocketing;
  • a gradual slide in the U.S dollar against major currencies.

Combination of these events induced a degree of recessionary tendencies and inflationary pressures across developed and developing countries. Policy-makers were gripped with the dual challenge of slowdown in growth and unprecedented rising inflationary pressures. Central bankers faced a demanding task of weighing the trade-off between growth and price stability. With the exception of few developed countries, most central banks showed a strong bias towards addressing the risk of inflation and responded with tightening of monetary policies.

On the domestic front, the external current account deficit and fiscal deficit widened considerably to unsustainable level (8. 4 and 7. 4 percent of GDP). The subsidy payments worth Rs 407 billion by Government, which account for almost half of the fiscal deficit, shielded domestic consumers from high international POL and commodity prices and distorted the natural demand adjustment mechanism. While the government passed on price increase to consumers, the rising international oil and other importable prices continued to take a toll on the economy.

Rising demand has cost the country dearly in terms of foreign exchange spent on importing large volumes of these commodities. Rising fiscal deficit and lower than required financing flows resulted in exceptional recourse of the Government to the highly inflationary central bank borrowing for financing deficit. At the same time the surge in imports persisted. As a result, inflation accelerated and its expectations strengthened due to pass through of international oil prices to the domestic market, increases in the electricity tariff and the general sales tax, and rising exchange rate depreciation.

These developments resulted in a further rise in headline as well as core inflation (20 percent weighted trimmed measure) to 25 percent and 21. 7 percent respectively in October 2008. Considering the size of macroeconomic imbalances and the emerging inflationary pressures, SBP remained committed to achieve price stability over the medium term and thus had to launch steeper monetary tightening to tame the demand pressures and restore macroeconomic stability in FY09. SBP thus increased the policy rate from 13. 5 to 15%.

What Needs to be Done to Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy?

  • Apart from taking policy measures to address the emerging challenges, SBP also introduced structural changes in the process of monetary policy formulation and conduct to make the monetary policy formulation and implementation more transparent, efficient, and effective. Specifically, during the last couple of years, SBP focused on
  • Institutionalizing the process of policy formulation and conduct
  • Stepping up movement towards a more market based credit allocation mechanism
  • Developing its analytical and operational capacity
  • Improving its capabilities to assess future developments to act proactively
  • Improving upon the communication of policy stance to the general public.

However, the following areas need attention and are keys or effective monetary management.

  1. Effectiveness of monetary and fiscal co-ordination would be helpful. Section 9A and 9B of the SBP Act (amended in 1994) articulates the institutional mechanism for economic policy making and co-ordination and defines the ground rules for both the process and the policy making. However, the track record of the Monetary and Fiscal Policies Co-ordination Board (MFPCB), established in February 1994 that requires quarterly meetings of the SBP and the government, has been less than satisfactory. Furthermore, the sequencing of economy-wide projections is done in isolation of the budget and monetary policy making process, and the budget making process has not respected the monetary compulsions. With rising spending and stagnating revenues, the budget assumes at the start of the year certain recourse to the central bank rather than treat it as mere ways and means advances.
  2. For effective analysis of developments and policy making, timely and quality information is extremely important. However, due to weaknesses in the data collection and reporting mechanism of the various agencies of the country, information is not available with desired frequency and timeliness. Also there are concerns over the quality of data. Unlike many developed and developing countries, data on quarterly GDP, employment and wages, etc is not available in case of Pakistan. Moreover, the data on key macroeconomic variables (such as government expenditure and revenue, output of large-scale manufacturing, crop estimates, etc) is usually available with substantial lags. This constrains an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation and evolving trends, and hinders the ability of the SBP to develop a forward-looking policy stance.
  3. Unlike many countries, both developed and developing, there is no prescribed limit on government borrowing from SBP defined in the SBP Act or the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation (FRDL) Act 2005. Besides being highly inflationary, government borrowing from SBP also complicates liquidity management. Borrowing from the central bank injects liquidity in the system through increased currency in circulation and deposits of the government with the banks. In both cases, the impact of tight monetary stance is diluted as this automatic creation of money increases money supply without any prior notice. Moreover, access to potentially unlimited borrowings from the SBP provides little incentives to the government to put the fiscal accounts in order. Therefore, the foremost task to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy is to prohibit the practice of government borrowings from the SBP. In this regard, appropriate provisions are required to cease or limit government recourse to central bank financing through amendments in the SBP Act and the FRDL Act 2005.
  4. Another issue is to make a clear distinction between exchange rate management and monetary management. Currently, there is a general perception that the State Bank is bound to keep the exchange rate at some predefined level and any movement away from this level is then considered as an inefficiency of the SBP. There is a need to understand that for an open economy, it is impossible to pursue an independent monetary and exchange rate policy as well as allowing capital to move freely across the border. Since the SBP endeavors to achieve price stability through achieving monetary targets by changes in the policy rate, it is not possible to maintain exchange rates at some level with free capital mobility. This can only be achieved by putting complete restrictions on capital movements, which is not possible. SBP’s responsibility is to ensure an environment where foreign exchange flows are driven by economic fundamental and are not misguided by rent seeking speculation.
  5. Finally, based on experience particularly gained during the last two months is to differentiate between liquidity management and monetary policy stance. Recently, when the banking system experienced extraordinary stress due to shallow liquidity in the system, rumor mongering heightened the general public anxiety over few banks’ sustainability. Consequently, the SBP had to intervene in the market by injecting ample liquidity through various measures.

In some quarters, these changes were deemed as a change in the bank’s tight monetary policy stance. However, this was not the case and the bank had to clearly and repeatedly communicate that the existing stance is being continued. Later on, the bank further tightened its monetary policy. It must be understood that quite often, liquidity management can drive the market interest rates away from the direction desired under the monetary policy stance. However, this has to be temporary and ‘the interest rates are bound to move in the policy stance direction.

To resolve this issue, the SBP is studying various options, including the introduction of a “Standing Deposit Facility” to keep the interbank rate within a corridor. In conclusion, it is imperative that above steps be taken urgently. Over the period, however, this needs to be complemented with much deeper structural reforms to synchronize and reform the medium term planning for the budget and monetary policy formulation process Several studies and technical assistance have provided extensive guidance in this area, but the lack of capacities and short term compulsions have often withheld such reforms.

What is important is to recognize that a medium term development strategy, independently worked out, would help minimize one agency interest which has often been a source of co-ordination difficulties. It would also help the budget making process more rule based than the incrementally driven process to satisfy conflicting demands.

Recent developments in monetary policy (2007-2009)

The SBP has kept its tight monetary policy stance in the period July 01, 2008-April 20, 2009. The policy rate was adjusted upward in November 2008 to shave-off some aggregate demand from the economy and kept constant in January 2009.

However, noticing visible signs of demand compression enabled the SBP to reduce 100 basis points on April 20, 2009. During July 01, 2008-April 18, 2009, money supply (M2) expanded by 1. 6 percent against the target of expansion of 8. 0 percent for the year and last year expansion of 8. 1 percent in the comparable period of last year. The reserve money witnessed contraction of 2. 2 percent in this period as against expansion of 10. 3 percent in the comparable period of last year. Net domestic assets (NDA) have increased by Rs. 307 billion as compared to increase of Rs. 627. 5billion in last year.

However, it is showing an increase of 7. 6 percent in stock during this period, whereas, last year the growth in stock was 20. 4 percent in the comparable period. Net foreign assets (NFA) have recorded a contraction of Rs. 263. 9 billion against the contraction of Rs. 356. 4 billion in the comparable of last year Government borrowing for budgetary support has recorded an increase of Rs. 240. 5 billion as compared to Rs. 336. 0 billion in the comparable period of the last year. The government has over performed against freezing the net borrowing from SBP at Rs. 57 billion in 2008-09 and the SBP financing has shown a net increase of Rs. 103. 3 billion and financing from scheduled banks witnessed a net increase of Rs. 137. 2 billion during July 01, 2008-April 18, 2009. Credit to private sector witnessed a net increase of Rs. 55. 4 billion during July 01, 2008-April 18, 2009 as compared to Rs. 359. 7 billion in the comparable period of last year. The stocks still went up by 9. 1 percent. SBP undertook aggressive monetary tightening during the period, further increasing the policy rate by 300 bps in two rounds.

On a cumulative basis, this means a 550 bps increase during the last 18 months up to March 2009. However, the policy rate was decreased by 100 bps on April 20, 2009. These policy measures were in response to carryover of macroeconomic stresses of the preceding year and increase in real aggregate demand. Monetary tightening has worked in the right direction. Weighted average lending rate have witnessed slight decline from 15. 5 percent in October 2008 to 14. 8 percent in February 2009. Weighted average deposit rate on the other hand has increased from 6. 2 percent in October 2008 to 7. percent in February 2009 which implies narrowing of the spread amidst intensive deposit mobilization efforts on the part of the banks. The weighted average yields on 6 months T-bill has declined by almost 250 basis points to 11. 5 percent in March 2009 as against 14 percent in November and December 2008 Recent Discount Rate in Pakistan (2007-2009) During 2007-08, the SBP continued with tight monetary policy stance, thrice raising the discount rate and increased the Cash Reserve requirement (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Requirement (SLR).

In the light of continued inflationary buildup and increasing pressures in the foreign exchange market, the SBP announced a package of monetary measures on May 21, 2008 that included;

  1. an increase of 150 bps in discount rate to 12 percent;
  2. an increase of 100 bps in CRR and SLR to 9 percent and 19 percent, respectively for banking institutions
  3. introduction of a margin requirement for the opening of letter of credit for imports (excluding food and oil) of 35percent,
  4. establishment of a floor of 5percent on the rate of return on profit and loss sharing and saving accounts.

The year 2008-09 is characterized by a reduction in CRR by 2 percent in two equal phases to help the liquidity issues of the banking system. Later on, the SBP announced a 200 bps hike in discount rate to 15 per cent on November 12, 2008 in response to persistent hike in core inflation and current account deficit in a last ditch effort to demand compression. Following a slight reversal in the mounting inflationary and demand pressures, the SBP announced a downward adjustment of policy rate by 100 bps on April 20, 2009.

SBP’s tight monetary policy and rationalization of fiscal subsidies and expenditure controls are the key factors that contributed a reasonable progress towards macroeconomic stability. The private consumption grew by 5. 2 percent in real term during 2008-09 which implies that notwithstanding substantial reduction in the fiscal and current account deficits, demand pressures are still confronting monetary management.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia and Interest Rates

How is an increase in the cash rate likely to affect mortgage interest rates? Increases will be announced almost immediately in variable rates. How is an increase in the cash rate likely to affect imports An increase in the cash rate may attract an additional flow in of foreign investment funds which will increase the AUD exchange rate. Foreign goods priced in a currency against which the AUD has appreciated will be cheaper in AUD terms and thus the quantity of the goods sold may will increase.

How is an increase in the cash rate likely to affect the exchange rate? An increase in the cash rate may attract an additional inflow of foreign investment funds which will increase the AUD exchange rate (appreciate the currency). Will a drop in the cash rate affect inflation? Explain. Theoretically it will. A drop in the cash rate will stimulate borrowing, investment and economic activity. The increased demand for resources will put upward pressure on the prices of resources and may lead to inflation. Answers to in-chapter questions.

What is likely to happen to the monetary base when (a) Centrelink credits age pension to pensioners’ bank accounts? – increase in money supply, (b) the RBA buys government securities from Australian investors and (c) banks raise funds by an overseas note issue?

A – increase in money supply B – increase in money supply C – no change as if the payments are received in forex, then they exchange the currency for AUD already in the money supply. If the payments are received in AUD, then other agents have already exchanged the forex for AUD.

Why do the financial markets pay so much attention to the cash rate? The cash rate reflects the monetary policy stance and the influence the RBA is trying to exert on the level of economic activity. It also has a significant impact on consumer and business confidence, willingness to invest and spend and ability to service their debt.

Describe the likely consequences for GDP growth when the RBA sells CGS to raise funds for the Commonwealth Government A sale of CGS will reduce the supply of money in the economy all other things being equal.

This will lead to increased in interest rates as money supply reduces. Higher interest rates reduce the spending power of consumers and business. This results in less spending, investment and a general decline in asset values as spending tightens. Consumers and business are also likely to become more conservative as rates increase. This would then limit GDP growth. It also must be consider for what purpose the funds will be used and this may mitigate the restrictive monetary policy position.

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Effectiveness of Monetory Policy

Various studies have reflected the existence of a positive relationship between the increase of money supply and the level of inflation. Generally, this is reflected by the continued rise of prices of the various products. A situation ensues where excess amounts of money tend to be chasing too few goods. In this perspective, this study tested on whether monetary policy is an effective tool in the combating of inflation and ensuring price stability. The first and foremost objective of the central bank is to formulation and implementation of the monetary policy for maintaining the values of local currency.

Otherwise the living standard of the general people may go down. This study finds out the money supply has a direct impact on the level of inflation. Statistically, money supply has a statistical significance on the level of inflation in the country. Thus, monetary policies aimed at controlling the amount of money supply in the economy, have a tremendous impact on controlling the level of inflation 2. Objectives of the Study The objectives of the study revolved around exploring the significance and the suitability of the monetary policy in realizing macroeconomic goals.

Some of these macroeconomic objectives included price stability, economic growth, full employment, and a favorable balance of payment. 3. Specific Objective Find out the effectiveness of monetary policy in ensuring price Stability & preserving the value of local currency by combating of inflation. 4. Introduction Since time immemorial, inflation has always been an issue of extreme sensitivity. This accrues to the fact that a case of inflation has overall effect on the prices of commodities. An instance of spiraling, uncontrollable inflation is usually a sign of impending catastrophic doom.

Thus, the control of monetary policy has turned out to be an essential function of all governments in the world. Inflation does not necessarily have to be reflected a continued increase in the prices of commodities (hyperinflation), the vice versa can also be a reflection of inflation (deflation). However, both situations are more than unhealthy for the economy. In most economic situations, the major reasons for the inception of inflation are a culmination of excessive demand for products. The necessary economic policy would thus be entrenched on looking at the causes of an unnecessary rise.

This way, they can thus be able to come up with the right measures that can aid in controlling the existing verbal demand in an economy. To this end, various researchers have established the ability of monetary policy as a tool for controlling inflation. All over the world, in diverse economies, monetary policy has been seen as an approach to effectively control inflation. This is reflected by the ability of monetary policy in controlling the rise in demand by an increase in the available rates of interest.

In addition, monetary policy reduces the existing real money in the economy. A rise in the interest manages to bring an overall reduction in collective demand in an economy. To this end, this Essay aims at looking at how effective monetary policy as a tool for ensuring price stability. 5. Background Analysis Monetary policy is defined as a public interventionist action that aims at manipulating the level and array of economic activity so as to accomplish specific, desired goals.

Specifically, monetary policies are aimed to work fewer than two economic variables that affect the level of inflation in an economy. The two aggregate variables are supply of money in circulation and the respective interest rate in an economy. Monetary policy is among the few tools that a national government can utilize to control the economy using the given monetary authority in the control of the supply and availability of money. Controlling the availability, leading to a control of access, ultimately influences the demand of products.

The law of demand ultimately reflects that an increase in demand for products of products leads to an increase in prices. Demand is in turn influenced by the availability of money in the economy. Thus, direct or indirect control of money leads to an ultimate control of inflation. In most instances, governments try to influence an overall level of economic activities to be in line with individual objectives. Some of these objectives include socio cultural, political, economic, and technological objectives.

Generally, the main aim of governments is the existence of a macroeconomic stability. Usually, macroeconomic stability encompasses stable prices, economic growth, full employment, balance of external payment, and development in a country. Generally, it is the Job of the central bank of any nation to come up with, and implement, monetary policies that aim at achieving stability in the expected price level of products in a country. However, the major aim is to attain stability in prices so as to be able to sustain the existing value of the currency in a particular country.

All economies of the world endeavored to create a central bank as a means of safeguarding the value of individual currency. In the case of integrated economies, there exist geographical banks and one major bank for the respective organization. For example, various American states have federal banks to check on their currency. In addition, an overall control is exhibited by the Central Bank of America. In addition, monetary policy is a major tool exploited in a battle of preserving a runners in an economy. 6.

Literature Review Theory has proposed several ways in which inflation can be combated; this essay is concerned with the literature that led to the use of such instruments and policies. To enable us understand the prepositions made the study analyzed several theories: 7. The Classical Quantity Theory of Money This theory was developed by Irving Fisher. Fisher took the view that money was only used as a medium of exchange to settle transaction involving the demand and supply for goods and services. The quantity theory of money can be developed to a theory of price levels.

Since NV=APT Where V – Velocity of circulation M -Money supply p _ price T -Quantity of transactions Assuming that V and T are roughly constant, P will vary directly with increase or decrease in the amount of M and it changes in money supply (M) that causes the prices (P) to change, not changes in price that cause the changes in supply is assumed to be constant as the economy in question is assumed to be operating at full employment. If the velocity of circulation is more or less constant than any growth in money supply (M) over and above the potential of the economy to increase, T will cause inflation.

This is then consistent with the monetary policy to curb inflation by controlling the money supply in the economy as it leads to inflation. A further notable feature in this theory is that the government monetary policy should allow some growth in money supply if the economy is growing but not let the growth in money supply to get out of hand as if output in the economy (T) is growing and the velocity of circulation (V) is constant then a matching growth in the money supply of money is needed to avoid deflation. . The Monetarist Policy Theory Monetarists argue that since money is a direct substitute for all other assets, an increase in the supply of money supply, given a fairly stable velocity of circulation, will have a direct effect on the demand for other assets since there will be more money to spend on those assets. If the total output of the economy is fixed, then an increase in the money supply will lead directly to higher prices.

Monetarists therefore reach the same conclusion as the old quantity theory of money that a rise in money supply will lead directly to a rise in prices and probably also too rise in money incomes, an increase in real output and so an increase in employment. In the long run however, they argue that all increases in the money supply will be reflected in higher prices unless there is a long term growth in the economy. Monetarist school of economic thought contended that money supply is a key determinant of the level of production the short run and the rate of inflation in the long run.

In order to minimize uncertainty monetarist advocated for the maintenance of a constant rate of growth of money supply. Developing countries have depended on monetary policy in order to achieve price stability, economic growth and development, positive balance of payments and full employment. To contain any reduction in GAP the Central Bank adopted a selective credit control and special attention was given to the interests of marginal traders and productive agents in Agriculture. 9. Tools of Monetary Policy : There are three tools of monetary policy for which the value of money changes.

For ensuring price stability monetary policy has to focus on these three tools. Monetary Policy of Bangladesh Bank The aim is to achieve the twin goals of containing inflation and promoting sustained and stable economic growth; provide policy advice to the Government on deficit managing and public debt management; manage the balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves; provide payment services and ensure the stability of the financial system; conduct treasury and government securities related operations; and efficiently perform other international financial activities.

Financial Sector Developments Critical activities cover the development of the financial systems; provide effective prudential supervision; ensure information access, market intelligence, and contingency planning to avoid systematic risks; assist banking and financial entities o become efficient and competitive; discover new modalities for delivering agricultural and industrial term credit; enhance the access of small and medium enterprises to investment funds; further develop the market in public and private debt and risk capital; and promote measures for inclusion of people hitherto bypassed in formal financial systems.

In addition, the Bangladesh Bank will continuously adopt necessary measures for taking a proactive stance in decision making; compiling relevant statistics and conducting high quality and timely economic research to review the country financial and economic conditions to purport decision making; ensuring efficient and professional management of Bib’s human and financial resources; and establishing Bib’s distinct identity based on its values and strategic roles.

In order to uphold the mission, Bangladesh Banks aim would be to provide the required leadership by discharging its duties in a manner that shows a clear vision, is watchful, far-sighted, intelligent and responsive based on an effective and efficient communication strategy. At all times, Bib’s aim would be to remain committed, efficient, capable, logistically supported, speedy, focused, and aggressive where necessary in order to ensure that the Bangladesh Bank always remains a credible and prestigious institution with an efficient organizational structure committed to achieving its goals. 9. Interest rate policy This arises where the central bank increases the rate of interest rates for borrowing funds. This instrument is most applicable in cases where banks turn to the central banks as an avenue of securing funds. The rates that can be increased include the overnight borrowing rate. This tends to discourage borrowing which then end up reducing the rate of inflation in an economy. So interest rate is a crucial important to sustain the price stability. Comparison of Interest Rate in Bangladesh Source: 1 . Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank for Scheduled Banks Weighted Average Interest Rate. . Debt Management Department, Bangladesh Bank for Weighted Average Call Money Market Rates. 9. 2 Inflation Targeting This is an economic monetary inflation policy aimed at achieving a specific level of inflation in the country. This involves the setting of a certain level of inflation by the central bank, and then working towards achieving the given level of inflation. This is usually done through the utilization of interest rate changes and other monetary tools. Despite the embracing of the above monetary policies, many countries still find themselves being faced by extreme inflation rates.

The rates end up eroding the value of the specific currency. A devaluation of currency ends up creating an unfavorable balance of payment and hence accumulation of debts and deficit budgets. In this perspective, third world countries continue to remain poor despite their rigorous endeavors aimed at escaping the unfavorable economic situation. In mimes of political tumult, monetary policy also tends to be ineffective in cases of political turmoil. The matter is further aggravated when political instability combines with economic shocks.

This leads to a culmination of extreme inflation being witnessed in a country. An epitome of this was witnessed in Bangladesh during the period of Care taker Government of 2007-2008. The prices of basic commodities soared to the extent that they were virtually impossible to the average man. In addition, the monetary policies set out to correct out the situation ended up being ineffective in the control of the ensuing inflation. Economic shocks such as depressions, recessions, and booms also render monetary policies ineffective. This was witnessed during the 2008/09 economic recession all over the world.

During the recession, major world economies faced harsh circumstances despite having well formulated monetary policies in place. The available strategies failed to stir the economy back to stability. 9. 3 Foreign Exchange Valuation Figure of Inflation Rate in Bangladesh A method for providing an interface for Foreign Exchange trading centered on a Foreign Exchange rate and this rate is an important factor of value changing of money. So the foreign exchange rate is an important factor for monetary policy. Comparative Figure of exchange Rate in Bangladesh 10.

Monetary Policy Instruments: There exist a variety of monetary policy instruments through which the central bank controls/ maintains general price level. Some of these tools include the following: 10. 1 Open Market Operations: Open market operations refer to the sale or purchase of securities. The transactions usually take place in the open market of the central bank. This instrument usually targets the available cash balances of commercial banks and other non bank institutions. The available balances are checked in relation to excess reserves available at the central bank.

The major aim of this tool is the attainment of a predetermined level of reserve money. A situation of influenced commercial bank lending ensues hence an overall control of money supply in the economy. 10. Ii. Setting the bank rate: Central bank sets a bank rate for its borrowers. To maintain the general price level, central bank changes the rate time to time. If it wants to take the additional money from the market, it rises the interest rate on the other hand if there is shortage of money in the market it reduces the rate to make balance and control the price level. 0. Iii. Adjusting Reserve Ratio Reserve Ratio is also known as liquidity asset ratio is defined as the proportion of total assets being held by a bank. Every commercial bank has to maintain a reserve of liquid money to the central bank which is called SSL (Statutory Liquidity Ratio). This is usually in the form of liquid assets and cash. This instrument is effective since it manages to indiscriminately affect all banks. Also, the method tends to be directly established and the effects of its implementation are felt soon after its inception.

The intended purpose of the tool is usually to create a situation where a banks free cash base is reduced. This reduces a banks ability to give out loans and advances and creates an overall reduction of availability of money. The reduction of excess money supply ends up curbing prices and inflation. 10. Lb. Moral Suasion It is one of the qualitative instruments of controlling general price level through persuasion at a moral sight not to disburse more loans to the particular bank. Persuasion not to give out loan to the any particular sector to control money supply . 10. V. Certain Margin Requirements

Every importer has to keep a certain margin at the time of opening any LLC to the commercial banks to import goods from foreign countries. This marginal money becomes locked up to the bank until the goods are imported and the transaction is settled. This margin level is determined by the central bank and trough setting up new margin requirements central bank can maintain the general price level. 10. V’. Selective Credit Control These instruments prevail on the quantitative measure of credit control that strives at encouraging selective essential sectors of the economy while at the same time discouraging others.

In one such instance, the Central Bank of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank can ensue to restrict government borrowing up to a given extent. Normally, the given legal limit is 5 percent of the most recent audited government ordinary revenues. Usually, this aims at reducing a case of excess government expenditure. A case of excess government spending leads to a situation of inflationary crisis. 1 1 . Failure of Monetary Policy in Developing Countries Despite the widespread success of monetary policies, there exists a tendency of failure of the policy in developing economies.

The failure can be attributed to a yard of reasons. Some of the reasons include the following: I) In developing economies, markets and financial institutions tend to be highly disorganized. The lack of well developed capital and money markets and a limited quantity and range of financial assets creates and atmosphere that leads to the failure of monetary policy. It) In some instances, monetary policies end up being misused by the authorities. This leads to a situation where the monetary policies fail to address the situation at hand. Ii) In third world countries, commercial banks tend to have excess funds due to lack of viable projects and borrowers. This reduces the sensitivity of their cash base. In this case, the effectiveness of open market operations ends up being severely limited. Iv) The existence of high levels of corruption ends up rendering some instruments like selective credit control to be ineffective. V) Illiteracy in the developing countries ensures that individuals have little or no knowledge on the working of monetary policy. This reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Ii) Most individuals in developing countries prefer personal storage of money as opposed to bank deposits. This ends up reducing the effectiveness of Central Bank’s endeavors 12. Conclusion To establish the effectiveness of monetary policy as a tool for combating inflation, The variables investigated were the level of inflation, commercial banks interest rates, money supply and the foreign exchange rate (measurable in dollars) and money supply was found out to be most significant factor affecting the rate of inflation.

When money supply increases by one hundred billion the rate of inflation increases by 5. 478 . This being so, then it means that any increase in money supply should be managed to a level that allows the economy to grow and also high enough to avoid fellatio (a situation where the prices are falling) This is due to the fact that, if money supply is zero and the other factors are also zero, there will be a deflation of 18. 042. This means that the economy is not growing hence adversely affects the other objectives of macroeconomics.

Also, it is evident that there exist a positive relationship between increase in foreign exchange rate and the rate of inflation; when the currency depreciates at a rate of one, inflation increases at a rate of 0. 233. Therefore efforts should be made to avoid any rise in foreign exchange or any appreciation in the domestic currency. Also, this research showed that there exist a negative relationship between the rate of inflation and the commercial banks interest rates.

When the commercial banks interest rates increase by one percent, the rate of inflation reduces by 0. 84. Thus, increase in interest rates is one way of controlling the rate of inflation. However, the rates of interest should be managed at a level that does not hurt investments as high interest rates hinders investments and this leads to poor economic growth hence it adversely affects the other macroeconomic objectives. Apart from the macroeconomic variables discussed above it is also evident other factors influence the rate of inflation.

Some of these factors include political instability, tribal clashes, international financial crisis (recession and depression ) amongst others. Inflation targeting (where the monetary authorities set a certain target and manages the macroeconomic variables towards achieving that inflation rate) as policy should also be used as this has shown positive results in some parts of the world such as South Africa. Thus, monetary policy, as a tool for controlling inflation, is effective

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Monetary Policy and Its Impact on the Recession

Table of contents

Introduction

The Federal Reserve Board (FED) utilizes tools to control or manipulate the money supply, these tools affect macroeconomic factors such as inflation, unemployment and interest rates, which ultimately determine a country’s GDP. To recommend the best monetary policy combination I will discuss the tools used by the feds, explain how money is created and also illustrate the effect of the money supply on the economy.

It is the money supply which determines the rate of inflation, unemployment and economic growth. Tools Used by The Federal Reserve To Control Money Supply. The Fed has three main tools for controlling the money supply these are their Open Market Operations, The Discount Rate, and The Reserve Ratio. These tools can be used to alter the reserve ratios of the commercial banks which in turn determine the money supply. “The money supply consists of currency (Federal Reserve Notes and coins) and checkable deposits. The U. S. Burea of Engraving creates Federal Reserve notes and the U. S. Mint creates the coins. ”(McConnell & Brue 2004) “By purchasing government bonds, (securities) the Fed increases the reserves of the banking system which then increase the lending ability of the commercial bank,”(McConnell & Brue 2004) and the money supply available. Selling bonds will also achieve the opposite results namely reduce the money supply by reducing the reserves of the bank. The central bank desires to be a lender of last resort. When the commercial bank borrows it gives the Fed a promissory note drawn against itself and secured by acceptable collateral.

The Fed charges interest on the loans which is called the discount rate. The new reserve obtained by borrowing from the Fed immediately becomes excess reserves as no required reserve needs to be kept for loans received from the Fed. Thus by reducing the discount rate, commercial banks can be encouraged to borrow from the Fed which directly increases their excess reserves and their ability to lend, so the money supply is increased. The opposite can also be done to reduce the money supply. The Fed can also manipulate the reserve ratio as a means of affecting the ability of commercial banks to lend.

If the Fed increases the reserve ratio the commercial bank is forced to reduce its checkable deposits in order to increase its reserves to the new minimum requirement. It might also be forced to sell some bonds in order to increase its required reserves, and both scenarios would result in a reduction of the money supply. By lowering the reserve ratio the commercial banks reserve is transformed into excess reserve which increases the banks capability of lending, which increases the money supply. “Interest rates in general rise and fall with the federal funds rate.

The prime interest rate is the benchmark rate that banks use as a reference point for a wide range of interest rates on loans to business and individuals. ” (McConnell & Brue 2004) Therefore when the Fed changes the discount rate it also changes the prime interest rate. A lower discount rate is passed on to consumers who then are able to obtain lower interest rates for mortgages and credit cards which increases their disposable income. This higher disposable income then results in more demand for goods and services which causes an increase in the supply of these goods to meet the increasing demand.

Also an increase in the money supply and more money to lend by the banks result in more credit for businesses who are then able to purchase more materials to produce more or invest into the expansion of their businesses. The end result is that more goods and services are being produced as a result of the increase in money supply, which is beneficial to the country’s GDP. “In brief, the impact of changing interest rates is mainly on investment (and, through that, on aggregate demand, output, employment and the price level).

Moreover investment spending varies inversely with the interest rate. ”(McConnell & Brue 2004) The Creation of Money Money creation occurs in two main ways, the creation of base money, mostly currency notes created by the Federal Reserve. The second process involves checking account or deposit money created by commercial banks, which makes up most of the money supply. Base money is created when the Fed performs open market operations. The Fed injects money when it purchases Government securities, by creating it.

Almost all money we come by has its basis in money that the Fed invented Once this money has been created approximately ten times as much can be created by banks in checking accounts and deposits. They accomplish this by granting loans to the public, a corresponding amount of checking account money is created with each new loan. So money is created when the money supply is increased. Using expansionary monetary policy, decreasing the reserve ratio and discount rates, or buying bonds and securities result in money being created. State of the Economy With regards to the U. S. conomy, it has “contracted further since the beginning of the recession, and the labor market worsened over the first half of 2009”. according to the published monetary policy report to the congress. (MPRC July 2009) Economic activity decreased sharply and strains in financial markets and pressures on financial institutions overall intensified. (MRPC July 2009. ) However the negative activity appears to be abating, unemployment has continued to increase but at a slower pace, while inflation has been minimal. To date the credit conditions continue to be restrictive and it is still difficult for businesses and households to receive credit.

The U. S. real gross domestic product (GDP) was less than the first quarter of 2009, though it seems that the” contraction of overall output looks to have moderated somewhat of late. “(MPRC July 2009). Consumer spending was increased due to the tax cuts and increases in various benefit payments received as part of a stimulus package, which increased disposable incomes. The housing market has experienced some stabilization in the demand for new houses after three years of persistent declines. Businesses however have continued to decrease their capital spending and liquidating of inventories due to reduced demand and excessive stocks.

More recently foreign demand has also dropped for U. S. products which produced a reduction in U. S. exports and the U. S. demand for imports also fell. Concerns of the Federal Reserve and Directions of Recent Monetary Policy The Federal Reserve policy action has focused on facilitating economic recovery and encouraging the flow of credit, which brought the federal funds rate down to a historic low rate of zero to one quarter percent, and also purchased additional agency (MBS) mortgage backed securities. MPRC 2009) “Overall consumer price inflation which slowed sharply late last year remained subdued in the first half of this year, as the margin of slack in labor and product markets widened considerably further as prices of oil and other commodities retraced only a part of their earlier steep declines. ”(MPRC2009)There is no effort to control inflation which seems to be under control so all emphasis is been placed on assisting the economy in recovering from the recession using monetary policies.

In addition to reducing the federal funds rate and purchasing securities, the Fed continued to provide funding to financial institutions and markets using a variety of credit and liquidity facilities. Recent monetary policy actions include the decision of the Federal Open market Committee (FOMC), to expand its purchases of agency MBS and agency debt and to commence the purchasing of longer-term treasury securities to assist in improving the conditions in private credit markets. The fed also announced it will expand the eligible collateral under the TALF program, which is the recently launched Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

In June 2009, at the FOMC meeting, the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks provided projections for economic growth, unemployment and inflation, these projections included the expectation of “real GDP to bottom out in the second half of this year, and then move onto a path of gradual recovery, bolstered by an accommodative monetary policy, government efforts to stabilize financial markets, and fiscal stimulus. ” (MPRC2009) It was also projected that conditions in the labor market would continue to eteriorate, and then improve slowly over the next two years, and inflation would remain subdued in 2010 and 2011. Recommended Monetary policy When trying to recover from a recession and stimulating economic growth it is possible to increase inflation due to the increase in money supply if the expansionary policies are prolonged. There has to be a balance which will reduce unemployment, deter inflation and yet promote economic growth. Monetary policy has been the best choice to manipulate the money supply as it is flexible, prompt and isolated from political pressure. McConnell & Brue 2004) The Fed can utilize open market operations, discount rate and the reserve ratio to achieve a balance between inflation, economic growth and unemployment. If the expansionary monetary policies result in too much spending and increased inflation, it can be curbed by selling securities, or increasing the discount rate and reserve ratios of the commercial banks. In the University of Phoenix simulation, the scenarios represented opportunities to utilize monetary policies to curb inflation, unemployment and increase GDP.

The solution was the effective manipulation of the discount rate, reserve ratio, and open market operations. What was noticeable was that when the money supply increased so did inflation, and the unemployment rate is inversely related to the GDP. When the GDP increased unemployment fell. Conclusion The three tools of monetary policy which include, open market operations, the discount rate and the reserve ratio are quite effective in the application of expansionary or restrictive monetary policies to combat recessions or curb inflation.

Whenever the Fed lowers the discount rate or the reserve ratio they increase commercial banks lending which stimulates aggregate demand and investment. The most effective tool seems to be the open market operation which is utilized more frequently, as the Government buys and sells securities often to manipulate the commercial bank’s reserves. Monetary policy is most effective due to speed and flexibility, it is free from political pressure and can be quickly utilized to respond to inflation and unemployment, and to create economic growth.

References

  1. Bankers Research Institute, The Wizards of Money Part 1: How Money Is created. Retrieved April 26, 2010 from http://www. altruists. org/static/files
  2. McConnell, C. & Brue, S. (2004). Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies, 6th ed. McGraw-Hill Irwin. Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, July 21, 2009. Retrieved April 26, 2010 from http://www. federalreserve. gov/monetarypolicy/mpr_20090721_part1. htm
  3. University of Phoenix. (2010). Simulations Monetary Policy [Computer Software]. Retrieved from University of Phoenix, Simulation MMPBL 501 website.

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China’s Monetary Policy & IMF

China’s contemporary monetary policy and regulation Monetary Policy Committee Policies (interest rate, ERR, foreign reserves… Risks IMPs Involvement Recent monetary reform Ill. Conclusion A. Future of China’s economy International Monetary Fund is an organization that consists of 188 countries, in which countries work together to promote global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, and sustainable economic growth around the globe. MIFF serves as an International bank, loaning money to member countries due to economic difficulties; and as an adjudicator, reconciling economic conflicts between countries.

It’s a pool of central bank reserves and national currencies that allows member countries to borrow. China Joined MIFF in 1945, and has twice used MIFF credits, in 1981 and in 1986. China holds annual consultations with MIFF on economic development and policy Issues. In recent number of years, China has been accused of currency manipulation and excessive foreign reserves to underpin economic China to make policy reforms. In this paper, I will begin with China’s monetary system, 1994 monetary crisis, and then discuss China’s current monetary policies, reforms, and Miff’s regulation on China.

China regulates its monetary system through POOCH (People’s Bank of China) by adjusting interest rate, performing open market operation, and manipulating Reserve Requirement Ratio. How Chinese government uses these policy tools is interdependent of how Chinese currency Yuan’s is arranged in foreign exchange mechanism. Central banks depreciate currency by cutting interest rate and increasing in foreign reserve to stimulate economic growth. In other words, Chinese regulators used more non-market financial policy to administrate credit expansion.

Through effective tight state control policies, China had passed a long way from where it was to the second largest economy in the world. It went wrought 1994 Monetary Crisis, 1997 East Asian Crisis, and Global Financial Crisis in 2008. These crises not only gave lessons to the Chinese regulating body and MIFF, but also indicate a warning sign of the underlying risk of using too much state control on interest rate and exchange rate. 1994 was a significant year in China’s economic history. China faced an unprecedented annual inflation rate of 24% in 1994.

It was largely caused by the over investment in early 1990 as government loosen credit to enterprises. Especially after Denominations visit to Southern China in 1992, in which e strongly advocated for economic growth, investment increased “43% from previous year”(3). The overstatement not only doubled the price of construction materials such as steel and lumber, but also increased price of grains significantly. The sudden rapid rise in price had a devastated effect on resident’s living conditions.

To fight with the inflation, the Chinese government implemented a series of actions, which include “tightening credit/loans, strict regulation of local/regional capital fund raising, tightening fixed asset investment scale, re-examining various newly established financial institutions, and controlling capital and cash holding of all financial organizations”(3). The main goal of these policies is to lower the economic growth rate and decrease the overall fixed asset investment. After one year of adjusting and implementing policies, the inflation rate reduced to 9. % in December 1995. Just like the cause of China’s Financial 1994 Crisis, the Asian Crisis of 1997 was the aftermath of a sudden surge in capital inflows to finance productive investments, which made a country’s economy vulnerable. The Asian Crisis started with the lapse of Thai Baht in July 1997, when Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its fixed exchange rate. Then the Crisis began to spread across to many East Asian countries, including South Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore.

All of the countries had acquired a burden of foreign debt. In Korea, the foreign debt-to-GAP ratio rose from 13% to as high as 40%. Furthermore, the crisis was “deepened by the Miff’s initial misdiagnosis” when MIFF imposed “budgetary tightening” policy to stabilize currency in Thailand, South Korea, and Indonesia (1). Although China was less affected by the crisis, it influenced its the monetary policies. Just as other Asian countries, China started built up official reserves so that it don’t have to borrow from MIFF.

Both crisis had a significant impact on China today’s monetary policy, which is Ojibwa, advocates for “dovish bias, a tendency to prefer accommodative monetary policy, supporting the use of policy tools to stimulate growth while placing less emphasis on the risks of inflation”(4). This policy belief led to manipulation in exchange rate when China was experiencing a rapid economic growth and currency appreciation. ARM appreciated from about 8. 828 Yuan in 2005 per dollar to 6. 09 in 2013, approximately 34% appreciation on a nominal basis against dollar and by 42% on a real basis (5).

It was because of China’s rapid economic development in the past decades. China has become one of the world’s largest exporters and created massive trade surplus and strong demand for ARM. The sudden appreciation led to inflation and consequently lower purchasing power of residents in China. The situation forced government to interfere with the exchange rate in order to maintain financial stability ND protect citizen’s welfare. POOCH cut the interest rate to increase the demand for credit, reduced ERR, and increase foreign reserve to fight against appreciation.

China’s large purchases of foreign reserves reduced their yields and push capital to emerging market, which successfully decelerated the speed of appreciation of ARM. However, how would these policies affect China’s economy in a long run? MIFF pointed out that China’s tight State control over banking system is creating risk to its economic growth in the future. China’ undervalued currency not only has negatively affected U. S and Global trade, but also has brought risk to its own economy.

According to the New York Times, there’s a growing list of countries, from the United States to the European Union to Brazil, have complained that China has been cheapening its currency. U. S criticized that China is trying to “gain unfair trade advantages over trading partners”(5). International Monetary Fund also claimed that ARM is significantly undervalued, and wrote a report to urge China to ease State controls on banking in 2011. The report examined on China’s financial policy, in which encourages high savings, high levels of equity, and high risk of capital misapplication and asset bubbles, especially in real estate.

In MIFF words, the consequence of these distortions is “rising over time, posing increasing macro-financial risks”. MIFF warned China: “tight government management of the nation’s banking and financial system was creating a steady build-up in vulnerabilities that could eventually damp economic growth “(2) Excessive bank lending and increasing local government debt as a long-term policy would put China’s economy at risk. However, China did not implement immediate change in monetary policy after Miff’s warning.

Instead, Chinese official argues that their exchange rate is not meant to earn unfair trade advantage, but to foster economic stability and social welfare to citizens. The government continues to regulate extensively on interest rates, estate price and exchange rate. Not until recently, China finally implements major monetary reforms in reply to Miff’s constant warnings. In order to maintain the economic growth, Chinese government must reform its banking system and adopt a flexible exchange rate. The POOCH has taken step to loosing the government’s intervention on interest rate, letting racket to set the price instead.

Just as recorded in the article “The Interest Rate As A Monetary Policy Instrument in China”, mainland lenders are allowed to charge rates on loans below the official benchmark-lending rate, effective from 20 July 2013. The scrapped (6). Furthermore, the cap on credit union lending rates was also abolished. These reforms indicate that Bank is not favoring state-owned entities, and indeed stimulates real economy. China is putting effort to liberalize interest rates, open financial market, and promote greater foreign investment. I believe that a tightened state control monetary policy is not efficient and sufficient in a long run.

Although it has brought finance stability, China has to let the capital flow freely in order to maintain economic growth in the future. China should move away from non-market financial policies and step toward a more market-based currency to rebalanced China’s economy. After decades of exponential expansion, China’s expansion is entering a period of slower growth. In the first half of 2013, China’s export growth rate was significant lower and GAP has also fallen. Zinnia claimed that the Yuan was nearing equilibrium against the dollar in June 2013.

In conclusion, China should depend less on exports and fixed investment to stimulate real economic growth. Ultimately, China should exert less power and subsidies state enterprises, but open up the market and foster global competition. It benefits Chinese Economy in a long-term by “re-directing resources away from inefficient (and often subsidized) sectors of the economy to those that are more efficient and competitive” (5). The reform would not only increase the efficiency of Chinese mommies firms, but also bring lower prices for consumers in China and improving standards of living after all.

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Production Costs

Exchange rates as well as the exchange rates market are perhaps some of the most important features of the modern world economy. Their influence on everyday economic activities, especially with respect to international trade, cannot be underestimated. A business dictionary defines an exchange rate as, “Price at which one country’s currency can be converted into another’s. …….. Most exchange rates float freely and change slightly each trading day; some rates are fixed and do not change as a result of market forces” Basically it is the price of one country’s money, in relation to another.

Today, most major economies operate using a flexible exchange rate system whilst a few operate on a fixed exchange rate system. These two systems are discussed in a bit more detail in the following lines. Fixed and floating exchange rate regimes A fixed exchange rate regime is, “System in which the value of a country’s currency, in relation to the value of other currencies, is maintained at a fixed conversion rate through government intervention. ” Government intervention in this case can come in the form of mostly monetary instruments or policies.

The graph below demonstrates a fixed exchange rate system: In a fixed exchange rate system, the government deliberately tries to influence the exchange rate. A higher amount of pounds in circulation for example means that the value of the pound will be lower against other currencies and vice versa. By tempering with interest rates, or issuing treasury bills and other monetary instruments etc, the government can influence the amount of pounds in circulation and hence the exchange rate. In the United Kingdom a floating exchange rate system is used.

In a floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate is determined by market forces. This is reiterated by an investment promotion website which defines it as , “Currency exchange rate which is determined by free market forces, rather than being fixed by a government. The market forces here is mainly in reference to a country’s exports and imports. Its balance of trade account as well as other factors. The graph below gives a brief description of how a floating exchange rate system works. ?

All things being equal, a floating rate exchange rate system creates equilibrium for the demand and supply of pounds in the exchange market. When the demand for pounds reduces shown by Q1 to Q2 maybe as a result of bad economic data coming from the UK that makes investors shun the British pound, the supply of pounds also decreases, as seen by a shift in the supply curve to the left. If inflation in the UK is lower as compared to that in its major trading partners, this translates to cheaper exports from the United Kingdom.

British products will be cheaper as compared to others, demand for them will increase and hence the value of the pound. On the other hand foreign good will be more expensive hence British citizens will spend less on imports thus supplying less pounds to the currence markkert. This translate to a stronger pound. If the Governor of the Bank England decides to reduce interest rates, this will make the United Kingdom a less lucrative destination to invest in. Thus investors will pull their funds away from the British money markets.

In doing so they increase the amount of pounds in the market, forcing the pound to depreciate. 3. Speculation In modern times this has become a very important factor. Trading in currencis has become a lucrative way of making money, as a result of the internet. The situation created is that there are just lots of people who are holding on to a lot of pounds for none other reason than just mere speculation. If speculator beleive that the pound is going to appreciate in future, they will buy lots of pounds from the foreign exchange market and this does have a tremendous effect on the market.

A stronger pound simply means that prices of imported goods are cheaper. This means that the price of imported raw materials to make Estee Lauder’s beauty products is lower. Thus cost of production will be very low. On the other hand however if Estee Lauder decides to export some of its products to Germany for example, the amount of sales will be low, because British goods will be more expensive for people using Euros. This situation can be reversed if we are talking of a weaker pound as compared to the euro.

However a strong pound helps keep a check on inflation ensuring economic stability and making sure the company finds strategies to remain competitive. Thus the study of the exchange rate markets is of mass importance and its influence on a company’s operations cannot be underestimated.

Works Cited

“Factors influencing exchange rate – Economics Help. ” Economics Help – Helping to Simplify Economics. 4 May 2009  http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/index.html

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What would happen if all currencies had the same value?

Such situation can become real only if the currency has some real value like gold. The rules for the monetary policy will have to be more rigid for all countries. There will be a necessity to create one organization which will control the flow of the world currency as well as its value. However, it’s quite impossible that this all will be done in a friendly way. Sometimes the government cannot resolve monetary problems within one small country. What can be triggered if the whole world is involved? There is a high likelihood that new conflicts and even wars can be brought about.

From my perspective, the attempts to create the world currency is doomed to failure, just as it happened with the attempt to create the world language Esperanto.

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