Road Accidents

Public policy refers to the action or inactivity of the authorities on an issue ( s ) ( Thomas 2001 cited in Buse et al 2005 ) . It sets hierarchy by transporting out the picks of those with the bid of authorization in the populace. This makes public policy alteration really complex as assorted persons, administrations and even the province have conflicting involvement and capacities. There is therefore the demand for coherency of interest/capacities in an effort to consequence a alteration ( Colebatch 2002 ) .

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explicate the schemes that would be used to consequence a alteration in public policy on route safety in Nigeria.

Health Issue and Public Health Importance:

Collision ( RTC ) is a major public wellness issue globally. It is defined as personal hurt ensuing from hit of a vehicle with another vehicle ( s ) or a prosaic, happening on the public main road or footways ( Worcestershire County Council 2010 ) .

The Situation Globally:

RTC histories for over 1.2 million deceases with approximately 20 to 50 million non fatal hurts ( a major cause of disablement ) happening yearly. It is the 9th prima cause of decease globally and is estimated to lift to be the 5th prima cause of decease by twelvemonth 2030 ( with approximately 2.4 million human deaths per twelvemonth ) out ranking public wellness issues like TB, HIV/AIDS ( soon the 5th prima cause of decease ) and diarrhoea diseases ( WHO 2008 ) . This means that by the twelvemonth 2030, RTC will be perceived every bit lifelessly as HIV/AIDS is today, if pressing action is non taken.

The planetary losingss due to route traffic hurts are estimated to be about 518 billion USD, bing the authorities between 1 – 3 % of its gross national merchandise ( WHO 2009a ) .

Nigeria:

Figure: Map of Nigeria demoing major accident zones.

Beginning: Savan demographic map

Nigeria is Africa ‘s most thickly settled state, with an estimated population size of about 151,319,500 ( World Bank 2010 ) . It is one of the 10 states with the highest Road traffic decease rates in the universe ( WHO 2009a ) . RTA is the commonest cause of decease from unwilled injuries/ public force in the state ( Nigeria Watch 2007 ) .

Usoro ( 2010 ) stated that there are about 30,000 accidents with about 35,000 casualties happening annually. About 90 individuals are killed or injured day-to-day and about 4 individual ‘s dies or acquire injured every hr from RTA. He argues that the figures are underestimated because of hapless coverage and hapless recording of route accidents in the state. Low socio economic groups have been found to be at higher hazard of route traffic hurts ( Thomas et al 2004 ) and they are less likely to hold the capacity to bear the direct or indirect cost related to RTA. They are faced with more poorness load as they lose their staff of life victor ; lose net incomes while caring for the injured or handicapped, the cost for funeral and drawn-out wellness attention ( DFID 2003 ) .

RTC has its greatest impact among the immature and is the 3rd prima cause of decease between ages 5 – 45years ( WHO 2009 ) with a decrease in the Country ‘s productive force, farther declining the economic state of affairs, therefore impacting the state accomplishing its MDGS 1 AND 4.

The major causes of RTC in Nigeria are ; high velocity, intoxicant, bad roads, hapless vehicle conditions etc ( Usoro 2010 ) . Although there is limited literature to demo the different per centums of the causes of RTC in Nigeria, high velocity is most concerned in low income states ( WHO 2009 ) .

Surveies have shown that a 5 % addition in mean velocity can ensue in about 20 % addition in fatal clangs ( Transport Research Centre 2006 ) and with a 1mph decrease in mean velocity there is a decrease in accident hurts by 5 % ( Finch et al 1994 ) . The debut of velocity cameras in the Isle of Wight, UK resulted in an 83 % decrease of velocity on the island ( Environment and Transport select Committee 2004 ) . Reducing velocity has besides been shown to hold positive effects on wellness results e.g. cut downing respiratory jobs associated with wellness results ( Transport Research Centre 2006 ) .

There is hence pressing demand for action to forestall this future pandemic.

PROPOSED CHANGE ( POLICY CONTENT ) :

Introduction of velocity cameras and enforcement of velocity bounds on Nigerian roads.

Procedure aims:

To cut down high velocity behavior of drivers and better Conformities to rush bounds

To educate the populace on the benefits of obeying route safety steps

Outcome aims: To cut down the morbidity and mortality from RTC by 30 % and to cut down the possible life old ages lost from RTC by 50 % by 2020.

Policy end:

To cut down the mortality and disablement associated with RTC from vehicle velocity in Nigeria.

Enforcement of velocity bounds via Mobile cameras has been shown to be the individual most effectual scheme for cut downing human death from RTC ( Chisom and Naci 2008 ) . It is therefore most rational among other rational schemes but has to puddle its manner through the policy procedure. Hence the nature of alteration follows the assorted scanning theoretical account.

For better apprehension of the complex many-sided nature of policy devising, the proposed policy alteration is seen as go throughing through a procedure taking topographic point in a peculiar context influenced by the participants/actors ( the policy analysis trigon ) ( Buse et al 2005 ) .

Actors: Persons, administrations and groups

orp

Content

Context

Procedure

Figure 2: Policy analysis trigon

Beginning: Walt and Gilson 1994.

THE POLICY Procedure:

Agenda scene

Policy rating and feedback

Policy preparation

Policy execution

The policy procedure can be broken down into series of phases called the ‘stages heuristic ‘ ( Sabatier and Jenkins-smith cited in Buse et Al. 2005 ) .It provides a theoretical model for understanding the times and topographic points where tactical attacks can be applied to influence policy alteration ( Buse et al 2005 ) .

Figure 3: Policy procedure

Before traveling on with the policy procedure, it will be worthwhile understanding the state ‘s policy context as this will help in determining the procedure.

THE NIGERIAN POLICY CONTEXT:

The proposed wellness policy alteration can be affected by the undermentioned contextual factors ( Leichter 1979 ) :

Situational factors:

This includes the increasing broad spread public consciousness and load caused by RTA in the state as stated above.

Cultural factors:

There are about 250 cultural groups ( Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba been the major cultural groups ) in Nigeria. The major faiths are Christianity, Islamism, traditional beliefs. These major religious and cultural groups are the most politically influential and most thickly settled in the state ( CIA 2009 ) . Most people believe that route accident is religious and is caused by evil liquors ( Sarma 2007 ) . Hence the spiritual leaders, traditional/ethnic group leaders will play an of import function in converting their followings and bettering ownership for community support and policy execution success.

International factors:

Road safety issues have increased in impulse on the planetary docket ( termed the decennary of action ) with an ambitious mark to cut down route human deaths by twelvemonth 2020. It is supported by international organic structures such as WHO, WB, DFID, FIA foundation and other UN administration ( Commission for planetary route safety 2009 ) . These organic structures will therefore hold an impact on the preparation of policies, support, duologue, planning, and protagonism guidelines for any state shiping on a route safety policy enterprise.

Structural Factors:

( a ) Political system: Nigeria is a democratic federation with degrees of authorization expressed at the federal, province and local authorities countries.

There are 36 provinces and the federal capital district, 774 LGAs farther divided into 9555 wards ( the lowest political unit in the state ) .

There are 3 weaponries of authorities, the Executive arm, Judiciary and the Legislature at the federal and province degrees.

The legislative arm comprises of the upper house ( the senate ) and the lower house ( the House of Representatives ) elected from the province senatorial territories and the constituencies severally.

Each province has an elected governor, the house of assembly, an executive council with powers to do Torahs.

Each local authorities country has an elected executive president and an elective legislative council of members from electoral wards.

The province authorities has significant liberty and control over the allotment and use of their resources ( WHO 2009b ) .

The Federal Road Safety Commission:

This is the lead bureau that regulates, enforces and coordinates all route safety direction activities at both the national, province and LGA level through their particular United States Marshals Services ( Volunteer arm ) and regular United States Marshals Services ( Uniformed ) . They play a major function in finding and implementing velocity bounds for assorted types of roads and vehicles ( FRSC 2010 ) . They receive aid from the constabulary, civil defense mechanism corps, NGO ‘S etc.

( B ) Civil societies, NGOs signifier e.g. RAPSON, APRI, SAVAN, and involvement groups are cardinal histrions in public policy devising and can take part at the commission phases of how a measure becomes a jurisprudence.

( degree Celsius ) Socio economic state of affairs: Nigeria is classified as a low income group state with a gross national income per capital of $ 930 ( WHO 2009a ) .This can impact acquiring the route safety policy on the docket among many other viing wellness issues.

To the easiness the policy issue from the docket puting to execution and rating, a stakeholder analysis is really of import.

STAKEHOLDER Analysis:

It helps to identify Actors ; measure their involvement, power, confederation, place and importance in relation to the policy. It will assist to place and move to forestall misinterpretation and resistance to the policy ( Schmeer 2000 ) .

Name of stakeholder ( administration,

Group or person at the federal, province or local degree )

Stakeholder description ( primary intent, association, support )

Potential function in the procedure ( vested involvement in the activity )

Potential degree of committedness ( support or oppose, to what extent and why ) and how to acquire their support

Available resources ( staff, voluntaries, )

Power

Government/Political sector

President

Commanding officer in head of the armed forces, initiate authorities policies/bills

Assenting to and sign language of measures, mentioning a measure back to the national assembly or to the constitutional tribunal on the measures constitutionality

Moderate support, demand for dialogue and lobbying

News conferences, high degree committedness ; statements and declarations at cardinal policy events, Speech

High

The senate and house of representatives

The province Governor and province house of assembly

Approves the proposed policy to go a jurisprudence, guarantee appropriate support

Novices and approves Government policies at the province degree severally

Sponsors/ Champions policy alteration,

Has significant liberty and control over the allotment and use of their resources at province degree

Some may back up and other may non. Necessitate to place title-holders, bargaining and lobbying for support

Same as above

News conferences, statements at cardinal policy events, Reports on commission meetings

Same as above

High

High

Ministry of wellness

Implement policies, programmes and take actions to beef up the wellness system

Draft measure in concurrence with the federal route safety committee, give advice to the authorities on the impact of route accidents

Strongly back up the enforcement of the route safety jurisprudence proposed

Political determination shapers, organizational construction of the freshly introduced nomadic injury squad

High

Federal route safety committee, Nigerian constabulary and the civil defense mechanism service corps

Lead bureau on disposal of route safety in Nigeria

Pilot trial, Assist the ministry of wellness with information for measure bill of exchange,

Strongly back up the enforcement of the route safety jurisprudence proposed

Organizational construction of the constabulary, civil defense mechanism, FRSC corps of United States Marshals Services three tier system

High

Ministry of finance

Provides public financess, facilitates development and reappraisals budget,

Prioritises reappraisal and blessing of budget for the proposed alteration

Variable if the cost for execution is significantly increased

Fundss to back up the purchase of velocity cameras

High

Ministry of transit

Oversing transit safety

Formulate and implement authorities policies on transit safety

May or may non back up because of other undertakings like the new rail manner system development in the state

Staffs available at assorted degrees

High

Ministry of Education

Oversing instruction related actives

Aid in execution of educational policies

May non back up because of other pressing demands like salary increase for instructors

Staffs available at assorted degrees

High

Pressure GROUPS

NBC ( MEDIA ) , NURTW, NURTO

Major political force per unit area groups

Beginning of information, force per unit area and influence in policy development

Strongly back up the policy alteration

Organised construction and staffs available

High

International organic structures

WHO, World bank, African development bank, Infrastructure pool for Africa, FIA, EURO NCAP, DFID,

Multi stakeholders commission, cardinal donors/development spouses and oversee execution of the funded undertaking.

Approves the proposal to utilize the fund grant in the procurance of the new policy

Strongly support but would be concerned about corrupt patterns

Financial, Potentially, human resources to influence policy, cardinal gate keepers for usage of planetary fund grant

Medium

Nongovernmental organization

SAVAN, RAPSON, PATVORA, SAFETY ALLIANCE, AARSI, Nigerian red cross

Agency committed to awareness, acceptance and observation of route safety patterns, station debut surveillance

Legislative reform protagonism and policy execution

Strongly back up

Trained staffs every bit good as voluntaries.

Low

Professional administration

Nigeria Medical Association, Researchers.

Represents its members and support their involvement

Can set force per unit area, and lobbying in the policy procedure

Strongly back up

Fiscal resources and potentially, human resources to act upon policy

Medium

Other civil societies

Community leaders/chiefs, young person groups,

Opinion leaders and determination shapers

Can negociate the policy alteration and utile for execution

Strongly back up

They can call up voluntaries, consciousness and influence on the community,

Medium

Table1: Stakeholders analysis table. Template beginning and some of the stakeholders functions ( WHO 2008 ) , other functions: ( Schmeer 2000 ) .

From the tabular array above, it can be seen that a batch of the cardinal stakeholders would strongly back up the enforcement of the route safety policy alteration. Schemes can so be developed ( consensus-building ) to advance actions for support and cut down resistance from the other stakeholders before go oning with the policy procedure. This can be done by sharing the information obtained among protagonists and encouraging treatment about how to turn to resistance.

AGENDA Setting:

This measure involves acquiring the issue onto the policy docket from among other issues that can potentially be of involvement to policy shapers ( Buse et al 2005 ) .

Kingdon ( 1984 ) proposed that policies get on the docket through 3 independent watercourses ( job, political relations and policy watercourse ) which converge at a point called the policy window. This is the point a policy alteration is most likely to happen. These watercourses in the Nigerian context are as shown in the figure below:

Policy window/ Action PointFig 4: Kingdon ‘s three stream theoretical account of docket scene ( Template beginning: policy and nutrition 2010 )

Call uping the Media:

McCombs and Shaw ( 1972 ) foremost developed the docket puting theory, demoing a strong correlativity between media docket and the public docket on US presidential runs in 1968, 1972 and 1976.

The media, been successful in stating the populace what to believe about ( University of Twente 2004 ) , will be mobilised to act upon the populace ‘s sentiment and accordingly the authorities through Television and wireless programmes/ News, News documents and articles from professional organic structures with accent on the magnitude and possible solution to cut downing the mortality from route traffic accidents. Restriction can besides be made to misdirect adverts which will promote velocity.

Personal experience of RTC ( direct or indirect ) could be a more powerful teacher than the media ( University of Twente 2004 ) but both will complement each other in bettering the public docket and later the policy docket.

Fig 5: Agenda puting demoing the function of the media ( Beginning: McQuail and Windahl 1993 ) .

POLICY FORMULATION AND ADOPTION:

This involves the stairss taken after the issue is placed on the docket up boulder clay when it is implemented. This portion of the procedure strongly lies in the sphere of the legislators which determines how a measure becomes jurisprudence and is implemented as shown below:

FRSC

SUPPORT ( Individuals/ administration )

Sponsor a Member of national assembly

Forwarding of the measure to National assembly

First Reading

Second Reading ( polish )

Public input

Committee phase ( Committee on route safety )

Report phase

Third reading

Public Input

Assent ( Presidents marks the Bill )

Bill is promulgated

Fig6: How measure becomes jurisprudence in Nigeria ( beginning of information: Jagaba 2009 ) Formulation Schemes:

To maintain the issue on the docket through this phase, there is demand for:

Continuous runs and Advocacy: Grassroots lobbying ( mobilising the populace to reach legislators or other policy shapers about the job ) and Direct Lobbying ( Phone calls, composing of letters, face to confront interactions ) ,

Mass Support by go toing commission meetings,

Informing international stakeholders that the issue is on the docket,

Dickering for protagonists from the legislators to better Alliance.

POLICY IMPLEMENTATION:

This involves the procedure by which a policy is turned into pattern ( Buse et al 2005 ) . The bottom -up attack ( Lipsky 1980 ) will be a really good attack for the execution such that there is flow of information from the implementers to the policy shapers. However, effort will be made to include the top-down attack in order to understate divergence from the intended policy result.

The execution procedure would necessitate clip and resources and should be a gradual procedure. It would be worthwhile holding a pilot undertaking in an country identified by research workers to hold a high mortality from RTA before execution at a National degree.

Initial rapid demands appraisal:

The route safety system would be assessed to happen out what is needed. The squad should include ; the constabulary, route safety committee, research workers, wellness economic expert, NGO ‘s, the NURTW, Volunteers, medical squads, Health policy analyst, the media, ministry of conveyance, support from developmental spouses, community/religious leaders and affecting the authorities at all degrees.

The appraisal will supply scientific, managerial and technological maps of the policy from be aftering to rating. On designation of the specific demands, the execution work program will be drawn.

Community/religious leaders will play a cardinal function in recommending within their communities/religious groups in converting their followings that RTC can be prevented and is non religious.

Execution agenda:

Legislation to stipulate velocity bounds applicable to different types of roads.

Identifying strategic cheque points which should be countries identified to hold a comparatively high RTC ensuing from high velocity.

Random placement of the squad to supervise vehicle velocity with the nomadic velocity cameras

Fines to be paid by lawbreakers will be fixed and gross generated be used for maintain and purchase of velocity cameras.

License suspension of lawbreakers who violates the jurisprudence over a specific figure of times as will be stated.

The usage of promotion to inform the populace on the new jurisprudence, its benefits and punishments.

Evaluation AND Feedback:

Buse et Al ( 2005 P ) defines rating as “ research designed specifically to measure the operation and or impact of a programme or policy in order to find whether the programme or policy is worth prosecuting farther ”

The technology theoretical account suggests that ideally there should be a direct relationship between research findings and policy determinations but nevertheless this is wholly non applicable as there tends to be spreads between the two communities. Advocacy alliance is needed to cut down this spread and should include bettering the cognition of policy shapers by supplying a scope of different research studies via the media, conferences and seminars, guaranting that major policies have ratings built into their budgets and execution programs and set up intermediate establishments to reexamine research and find its policy deductions e.g. NICE in England and Wales ( Buse et al 2005 ) .

The rating procedure will affect the usage of the formative rating ( qualitative-observations, semi-structured interviews, focal point groups, advancement studies ) at the early phase to supply advice to policy shapers. It may so be used to modify and develop the plan.

It will besides affect the usage of a summational rating ( quantitative- morbidity and mortality rates ) which measures result and the extent to which the programme has met its aims.

The Donabedian model ( Donabedian 1978 ) :

INPUTS INDICATORS

Procedure INDICATORS

End product Indexs

Result INDICATORS

Fundss for purchase of velocity cameras, logistics

Human resources- constabulary and route safety

Training of forces involved

Political committedness

Servicess offered- the usage of the velocity cameras

Reding quality offered to lawbreakers

Police/ route safety – driver interaction

Speed direction among route users

Collision rates from velocity

Badness of hurts from RTC

Mortality rates- per centum of deceases due to RTC ensuing from high velocity.

Disability rates- the rate of disablements attributable to high velocity vehicle hit

Complication rates

Quality of life

Table 2: Donabedian model

Evaluation of the public presentation: Speed limit enforcement will besides be done at the micro, meso and macro degrees.

The micro degree will include accessing public presentation of the squads at the territory degrees, the effectivity of the enforcement protocols used, the degree of corruptness and any execution spreads.

The meso degree will include accessing public presentation at the administration degree which will include the clip taken to go to to wrongdoers when referred to the route safety Centres, and their function assisting and oversing the squad at the territory degree.

The macro degree: this involves accessing funding of the programme and its map at the national or international degree.

Decision:

The policy procedure is a cyclical procedure happening in the environment of a altering political context. There is therefore the demand for uninterrupted protagonism alliance networking, monitoring and rating at all times. However, other causes of RTC such as bad roads, imbibing and drive which are non to the full implemented in the state should non be neglected as future programs should be made to further cut down the load of RTC to the barest lower limit.

The execution of the nomadic velocity cameras and velocity bound enforcement will assist cut down RTC mortalities and disablements, better research and besides quality of life thereby unlocking growing and freeing resources for usage on other wellness concerns with the position of accomplishing the MDGs.

Car accidents can happen to drivers anytime, anywhere. “According to the National Safety Council, which stated that more than 2. 5 million collisions back every year, making it the most common type of car accidents, it is also known that the accident rear end as incidents of injury, because the nature of the collision leads often in whiplash injury the driver in the car in front and about 20% of people who participated in a rear collision injury symptoms of this kind. , (NHTSA, auto-accident-resource. com). Among the car accidents, the teenage group is the only age group who is number of deaths is increasing instead of decreasing. Also, all the people are exposed to risk and actually every one of them has got car accident at least once that could have been easily prevented. There are many reasons car accidents happen such as drunken drivers, using cellular phones while driving, and teenage drivers. First reason is drinking and driving which is the leading cause of car accidents. “Over 1. 1 million drivers were arrested in 2010 for driving under the influence of alcohol or narcotics”, (Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime in the United States: 2010”, madd. org). Also,” drunk driving costs the United States $132 billion a year “, (NHTS FARS data, 2012, madd. org). Driving while intoxicated is dangerous, because drinking increases your inhibitions and self-confidence but lowers your driving performance. In other words, alcohol impairs the decision-making ability of the brain. For example, when people get drunk, they do not even think they are drunk.

They may feel like they can do anything. But they cannot. Many accidents occur because of drinking. These accidents involve mostly one car, but other people can be killed by drunk drivers. People have to be educated about drinking and driving, so they do not kill themselves or innocent people on the road. Second reason, using cell phones while driving causes car accidents. According to the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, “2,600 people died in 2004 and 330,000 more were injured while using cell phones just before an accident”. doityourself. com). When a cell phone is used while driving, it distracts the attention of the driver, leading to car accidents. While using a cell phone many people tend to miss traffic signals, because they are not really concentrating on driving. The process of dialing or answering the phone can make them lose control of the vehicle as well. Even though the driver is looking at the road, he or she can easily get distracted by the conversation. This can result in fatal accidents.

Third reason of accidents on the road is teenage drivers. “2,739 teenagers died in car accidents in the United States during 2008 “, (drivesteady. com). Some teenagers cause fatal accidents, because of immaturity and lack of experience. Teenagers are very impulsive. Although not intending to hurt anyone, they sometimes drive very aggressively. It is not difficult to find teenagers driving with one hand on the steering wheel, seat pushed back, and with loud music playing. In traffic they go wild, trying to seek attention.

They underestimate the risk of what they are doing. All these acts result in serious consequences on the road. Many accidents of young drivers result from their own mistakes. In conclusion, many people do not realize that being intoxicated while driving, using cellular phones and teenage drivers may bring serious injuries to everybody. Some people may enjoy drinking without care until they get into car accident, which can even result in the deaths of many innocent people.

The car accidents caused by these problems are really serious but preventable. If everybody tries to eliminate these problems by following the rules of the road, driving can be less dangerous, and we will not waste time on car accidents. REFERENCES: 1- (http://www. auto-accident-resource. com/statistics. html). 2- (http://www. madd. org/statistics/). 3- (http://www. madd. org/drunk-driving/about/drunk-driving-statistics. html). 4- (http://www. doityourself. com/stry/driving-safety-tips-statistics-on-deaths-by

Persuasive Speech Length 4-5 minutes PLEASE! Use Proper Safety Restraints in your Vehicle ?Adult restraints – ?Why are they important ?What happens if you don’t use them NO SEATBELT NO EXCUSE! •Let me start by saying that YES there are cases where you are better off NOT wearing a seatbelt but those cases are FAR FAR outweighed by the ones where you are better off wearing it. In the past few weeks there have been more than a few news stories about people being killed in car crashes.

It doesn’t matter how safe or careful you are, you can’t always predict what others are going to do and especially here in the south you can’t predict with the animals are going to do. According to the CDC, Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among Americans age 5-34. Adult seat belt use is the most effective way to save lives and reduce injuries during a crash, yet millions of Americans don’t wear seat belts. Motor vehicle crashes are a major public health problem. Young people ages 18-24 have the highest crash related injuries.

One in four of you will either be injured or killed in a car wreck this year! •What is the impact of seat belt use? Studies have shown that using your seat belt has reduced serious crash-related injuries and deaths by about 50%. •You say – you don’t need to wear your seatbelt, your car has airbags… Air bags provide added protection but are not a substitute for seat belts air bags alone tend to do more harm than good. •You say you are only going “down the road” – most accidents happen within 2 miles of your home or work place. You say – “I’m in the backseat”. It doesn’t matter where in the car you are – people in the back seat can AND DO get hurt just as often as those in the front. •Everyone else has their seatbelt on – Even if everyone else in the car has on their seatbelt – it only takes one to severely injury or kill others in the car. •I don’t want to wrinkle my outfit – but it’s ok to have it cut off you at the hospital because you were thrown out of your car in a wreck and didn’t have your seatbelt on?

I would like to share a short video with you – I found this one on the internet but still think it make help you visualize what really happens when you don’t have your seatbelt on in a crash. I tried to find one that wasn’t very graphic but still got my point across. VIDEO! Now that you have heard and seen what can happen when you get in a car without your seatbelt I sincerely hope that each of you will not only wear YOUR seatbelt but insist that everyone in the car with you wears theirs too! If these things have not convinced you scared you enough to wear your seat belt, remember that it IS the law so CLICK IT OR TICKET!

Introduction

Crash, boom, bang! In an instant, a car accident can change a person’s life forever. Each year, many unsuspecting drivers, passengers, and pedestrians are killed on the roads of the United States. The main question we ask ourselves is why? Are people killed because of high speed crashes? Did the airbags not deploy at the proper time? Were the roads in acceptable conditions? Unfortunately, we can not always determine the causes of all accidents, simply because we were not on the scene of the accident. There are many different reasons why fatal car accidents occur.

Some accidents involve distractions, alcohol consumption, road hazards, or inclement weather. In this econometric paper, the goal is to determine why fatal car accidents occur and what we can do to prevent a possible fatal accident from occurring. II. Empirical Model Specification The following empirical equation is used to determine fatal car accidents (per 100,000 registered vehicles) using ten independent variables. Cross sectional data is collected from 2003, from all fifty states. Eq (1): FCA = f(FUN, SAF, MIL, GAS, SPD, SBT, ROD, DRIY, DRIS, SUV + error term)

Where FCA measures the total number of fatal car accidents per 100,000 registered vehicles. Table 1 lists the independent variables, their definitions, and their expected effect on fatal car accidents. Specifically, this variable is measured by the amount of dollars spent in 2003 (in thousands) for funding highways, divided by the total road length miles (in thousands) in 2003 for each of the fifty states. According to Peters (2004), SAFETEA or The Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act of 2003 is greatly increasing highway funding and making roads safer.

When more money is spent per mile on highways, we would expect that fewer fatal car accidents will occur because roads are likely to be safer, due to newly constructed roads, more rumble strips, sturdier guard rails, and medians. Therefore, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable ROD measures the total amount of very good and good roads, divided by the total number of roads in each of the fifty states. The better the road conditions, the less likelihood of a fatal accident. When road conditions are very good or good, we consider them to be safe roads. For example, Persaud, Retting, and Lyon (2004) indicate that roads with rumble strips reduce fatalities by up to 25 percent; many good, safe roads have rumple strips.

Thus, safe roads often lead to fewer accidents because they will not be as dangerous at higher speeds to drivers as roads that are considered fair, mediocre, or poor. As a result, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable SAF is the amount of funding for highway safety programs per registered motor vehicle in 2003, measured by the total amount of allocated federal funds for safety programs in each of the fifty states (in thousands of dollars), divided by the total motor vehicle registrations in each of the fifty states (in thousands of registered drivers). According to Dorn and Barker (2004), drivers that follow highway safety professional driver training are safer drivers than those who do not follow a highway safety program.

When more money is spent per registered motor vehicle for highway safety programs, we would expect that fewer fatal car accidents will occur because drivers will be provided with education and safety programs. As a result, there will be a reduction in fatal car accidents. Thus, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable MIL is the average amount of total vehicle miles traveled per registered motor vehicle in each of the fifty states (in thousands) in 2003. The more miles a driver puts on a vehicle, the more likely they are to be involved in a fatal car accident because high mileage drivers spend a significant amount of time on the roads. As a result, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is positive.

The independent variable GAS is the average 2003 unleaded fuel price in each of the fifty states (in dollars). When gas prices increase, economic theory tells us that the quantity demanded for gasoline will decrease. The expected decrease in demand for gasoline will result in fewer miles driven. As a result, fatal accidents will decrease because fewer people will drive when gas prices are high; they will find alternative modes of transportation. Thus, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable SPD is the urban interstate speed limits in each of the fifty states, measured (in miles per hour) in 2003. High speeds often result in an increase chance in fatal car accidents.

Navon (2001) states that high driving speeds increase crash rates, injury rates, and the probability of a driver losing control of the automobile. Thus, the higher the speed limit, the more likelihood of a fatal car accident. As a result, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable SBT is the seat belt fines amount for each of the fifty states (in dollars) in 2003. If drivers are fined for not wearing seatbelts, they will likely take precaution in the future. The higher the seatbelt fine, the more likely a driver will start wearing a seatbelt on a regular basis because they will want to avoid receiving a hefty fine in the future.

Seatbelts have been proven to save lives. Robertson (1976) states that death occurs 50-80% less often in an accident when a person is restrained, rather than unrestrained. Wearing a seatbelt will lower the likelihood of a fatal accident. Therefore, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is negative. The independent variable DRIY is the percentage of motor vehicle drivers under the age of twenty-five in each of the fifty states. Younger drivers are inexperienced and are sometimes not familiar with hazardous road conditions. Many young drivers also tend to think of speed limits as insignificant, and often driver faster than the state speed limit.

According to Bingham and Shope, motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death in individuals under the age of 35. Moreover, young drivers are more likely to be involved with drug and alcohol misuse. Based on the above arguments, the expected sign of this independent variable is positive. The independent variable DRIS is the percentage of motor vehicle drivers over the age of sixty-five in each of the fifty states. Senior citizens often have health problems that can impair their driving, such as glaucoma or hearing loss. According to West, Gildengorin, et al (2003), poor vision is the most common impairment of senior drivers. The reflex skills and some motor skills of senior citizens are not at the same level as those much younger.

As a result, the expected sign of this independent variable is positive. The independent variable SUV is the ratio of sport utility vehicle registrations to the total vehicle registrations in each of the fifty states. Sport Utility Vehicles are popular today, but have an increased chance of rollovers. According to Rivara, Cummings, and Mock (2003), 60% of all rollover accidents occur in sport utility vehicles. Many Sport Utility Vehicles have safety features that are sub par to that of minivans, trucks, and small cars. Thus, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is positive, because increasing the chance of a rollover increases the chance of a fatality.

The independent variable DPM is the number of licensed drivers per squared mile in 2003, measured by the total number of licensed drivers per state, divided by the number of square miles per state. States located in the northeast tend to be heavily populated per square mile. As a result, there are many drivers in small areas. With a large number of drivers in a small area, we can expect that the occurrence of accidents is high, due to the amount of traffic and number of vehicles on the road. Therefore, the expected sign of the coefficient of this independent variable is positive, because large numbers of cars per square mile increases the chance of a fatal accident.

One might find it surprising to see West Virginia as having the highest amount of federal highway safety program funding. Typically, one would think that larger states, such as Texas or California would have the highest amount of funding, because of the size of the states. In calculating these values, consideration is placed on the dollar amount per registered driver. Nearly one quarter of West Virginia’s registered vehicles have drivers over the age of 65. This is surprising because when one thinks of a state with many senior citizens, Florida comes to mind. A reason for Florida not having the highest percentage may be that married senior citizens may only have one car. The percentages were calculated by the number of registered vehicles.

Thus, a vehicle may be registered to one person, but two people may drive the vehicle. III. Test of Multicollinearity Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables have a linear relationship, or correlation, with one another. There are two important consequences associated with multicollinearity. First, standard errors of the coefficients contain higher than normal standard errors. The result of this is an increased probability type two error increases (failing to reject a false null hypothesis). Secondly, the most important consequence of multicollinearity is that the Ordinary Least Squares method of estimation will not run.

As a result, an accurate regression can not be done. A correlation coefficient matrix is used to show correlation (multicollinearity) between independent variables. With absolute values greater than.

After running the t-test, I discovered that the coefficients of the variables FUN, MIL, SPD, SBT, ROD, DRIS, SUV, and DPM were not significant at the 5% level. As a result, I cannot support the statement that any of these variables have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The first coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was FUN. At the 5% level of significance, the state funding per mile of highways in 2003, measured by the amount of dollars spent (in thousands) for funding highways, divided by the total road length miles (in thousands) for each of the fifty states does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The second coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was MIL.

At the 5% level of significance, the total average vehicle miles traveled per registered motor vehicle in each of the fifty states (in thousands) in 2003 does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The third coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was SPD. At the 5% level of significance, the urban interstate speed limit in each of the fifty states, (in miles per hour) in 2003 does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The fourth coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was SBT. At the 5% level of significance, the seat belt fine amount for each of the fifty states (in dollars) in 2003 does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The fifth coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was ROD.

At the 5% level of significance, the percentage of roads in very good and good conditions, measured by the total amount of very good and good roads, divided by the total number of roads in each of the fifty states in 2003 does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The sixth coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was DRIS. At the 5% level of significance, the 2003 percentage of drivers over age 65 in each of the fifty states does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The seventh coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was SUV. At the 5% level of significance, the 2003 percentage of sport utility vehicle ownership in each of the fifty states does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. The eighth coefficient of the variable that failed the t-test was DPM.

At the 5% level of significance, the number of licensed drivers per square mile does not have a significant impact on the dependent variable FCA. Of the ten independent variables and their coefficients, only three passed the t-test. The first coefficient of the variable that passed the t-test was SAF. At the 5% level of significance, the Federal Highway Safety Program funding programs per registered motor vehicle in 2003, measured by the total amount of allocated federal funds for safety programs in each of the fifty states (in thousands of dollars), divided by the total motor vehicle registrations in each of the fifty states (in thousands of registered drivers) is significant.

According to the regression analysis, when Federal Highway Safety Program funds are considered significant and increased by one thousand dollars, fatal car accidents, per 100,000 registered vehicles are decreased by 14. 67 deaths. The second coefficient of the variable that passed the t-test was GAS. At the 5% level of significance, the average gas price of unleaded fuel price in each of the fifty states (in dollars) in 2003 is significant. According to the regression analysis, when gas prices are increased by one dollar and considered significant, fatal car accidents, per 100,000 registered vehicles are decreased by 3800. 26 deaths. The third coefficient of the variable that passed the t-test was DRIY.

At the 5% level of significance, the percentage of drivers, under age 25 in each of the fifty states is significant. According to the regression analysis, for each one percent increase of drivers under the age of 25, fatal car accidents, per 100,000 registered vehicles are decreased by 136. 85 deaths. The reason for the opposite expected sign of the coefficient DRIY is that the eq (1) contains omitted variable bias. Omitted variable bias occurs when an important variable to the model is omitted. As a result, a low adjusted R2 is present. The low correlation results, presented in the multicollinearity section of this paper, are also most likely due to omitted variable bias.

After finding these results, I added the variable DPM to eq(1) to help adjust for the low adjusted R2. The newly added variable helped improve the regression results slightly. VI. Conclusions The results of my data are surprising. First, my analysis shows that my model had no heteroskedasticity or multicollinearity. It is rare that a model does not contain heteroskedasticity or multicollinearity. When estimating the model, I believed that some of the coefficients of the independent variables would be highly correlated with one another. All of the coefficients of the independent variables had a correlation of under |. 70| with one another, with the exception of FUN and DPM.

Perhaps what is even more surprising is that only three of the coefficients of my ten independent variables were significant in explaining the determinants of fatal car accidents. The coefficients of the independent variables SAF, GAS, and DRIY are significant in my model. I did not expect that the actual sign of DRIY would be a negative, based on what the media tells us of hazardous young drivers. My model suggests that when more young drivers are on the road, fewer fatalities occur. Empirical literature can probably back this claim, as well as disagree. The coefficient of the independent variables SAF and GAS are also considered to be significant in this model.

Unlike DRIY, I expected that increasing both funding for highway safety programs and increasing gas prices would result in a reduction in fatal car accidents; my hypothesis was correct. It is important to keep in mind that my model only captured part of the data that determines fatal car accidents. Much data could not be processed, due to its nature and difficulty to find. For instance, I could not capture the percentage of day time versus night time driving for drivers in each state. Factors like this help to further explain the determinants of fatal car accidents. My goal in examining this topic is to find out what determines fatal car accidents.

While I may not have captured all of the variables and their coefficients, I leave knowing more about fatal car accidents and why they occur than before. By applying econometrics and literature, I now know why some fatal accidents occur and how to help avoid them.

Data Sources

1. United States Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. Highway Statistics 2003.
2. November 2004. http://www. fhwa. gov/policy/ohpi/hss/index. htm. United States Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
3. Traffic Safety Facts 2003 Early Edition. October 2004. http://www-nrd. nhtsa. dot. gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/TSF2003EarlyEdition. pdf.

Works Cited

1. Bingham, Raymond and Jean Shope. “Adolescent Problem Behavior and Problem Driving in Young Adulthood. ” Journal of Adolescent
2. Research 19. 2 (2004): 218-223. Dorn, Lisa and David Barker. “The Effects of Driver Training on Simulated Driving Performance. ” Accident Analysis and Prevention 37. 1 (2004): 63-69.
3. Narvon, David. “The Paradox of Driving Speed: Two Adverse Effects on Highway Accident Rate. ” Accident Analysis and Prevention 35. 3 (2003): 361-367. Persaud, Bhagwant, et al. “Crash Reduction Following Installation of Centerline Rumble Strips on Rural Two-Lane Roads.
4. Accident Analysis and Prevention 36. 6 (2004): 1073-1079. Peters, Mary. “New Federal Transportation Safety Initiative: Implications for the States. ” Spectrum: Journal of State Government 77. 1 (2004): 25-26.
5. Rivara, Fredrick, et al. “Injuries and Death of Children in Rollover Motor Vehicle Crashes in the United States. ” Injury Prevention 9. 1 (2003): 76-82. Robertson, Leon. Estimates of Motor Vehicle Seat Belt Effectiveness and Use: Implications for Occupant Crash Protection. ”
6. American Journal of Public Health 66. 9 (1976): 859-864. Studenmund, A. H. Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide. Boston: Addison, Wesley, and Longman, 2001.
7. West, Catherine, et al. “Vision and Driving Self-Restriction in Older Adults. ” Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 51. 10 (2003): 1348-1354. Wikipedia.
8. “List of U. S. States by Area. ” 15 April 2005. http://www. mywiseowl. com/articles/List_of_U. S. _states_by_area. Crash, Boom, Bang: The Determinants of Fatal Car Accidents An Econometric Study by John White Economics 421 Submitted to Dr. Jacqueline Khorassani April 18, 2005

Sometimes I wonder why people died of accident. Some blame this on reckless or aggressive driving while some believe it is normal for accident to occur. This is why the issue of aggressive driving has been a very vital issue today. These are recognized aggressive driving behaviors: over speeding, tailgating, weaving, and running red lights, darting in and out of lanes, yelling and gesturing etc.

Growing concerns about these drivers and the hazards they create on the roads have led to a flurry of activity by safety groups, law enforcement, mental health professionals and legislatures.

There have been different studies about this issue and this study is very important, because these drivers’ endangers their life and others. Sometimes it might be suicide on the drivers’ part.

One of these studies is the findings by the Institute for Traffic Safety Management and Research at the University of Albany, in conjunction with Fact Finders, Inc. and the New York Governor’s Traffic Safety Committee, which showed that almost 29 percent of those surveyed say they see someone driving aggressively every day.

Most of the participants admitted that they tend to drive more aggressively when in hurry, but not when angry or in a bad mood. The survey also indicated that aggressive driving poses problems for teens. The survey found that 24 percent of those aged 16 to 24 say they sometimes or most of the time drive aggressively as compared with 11 percent for those aged 45 to 54.

In another study by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, which found that between 1990 and 1996 road rage contributed to 218 deaths and 12,610 injuries.

The study analyzed 10,037 police reports and newspaper stories about traffic accidents that led to violence. What’s more, AAA found that road rage incidents increased nearly 7 percent each year within that six-year period. Some experts blame the increase on longer commutes, which have led to more people on the roads others blame it on aggressiveness, risk-taking and personality traits of high-danger drivers.

In conclusion, this study shows that teens are more likely to drive aggressively. In addition, there is a difference in the number of aggressive behavior between Convertible/Sports car (Porsche) drivers and drivers of Minivan and Truck.

It is believed that drivers of Trucks and Minivans drink most of the time than those driving sports car and will most times drive aggressively.

Reference:

• Dittmann, M, “Anger on the road”, Monitor staff, (2005, June).

“Cell phones”, a heavy gadget when it comes to use because it can do things just as computers can but this gadget is also heavy when it comes to pocket and worth of consequences. Discussing about using cell phones is important for the audiences to avoid the consequences of cell phone misuse and avoid the accident that cell phones might cause.

are a useful gadget and thus it is considered as a primary need of those who are in the business industry and even ordinary people who tends to be away from their family, but these said gadgets also causes accident especially on the road. Body According to the NHTSA, the national highway accidents reported were caused by using cell phones while driving. In addition, the report says that numbers of car crashes were caused by cell phone dialing, listening, as well as talking which leads the drivers to be distracted on the road.

Statistics also says that there are almost 80 percent of car crashes which occur within the p of a short 3 seconds just because of driving distraction caused by cell phone use. People should know that distraction on car driving is worth a big consequence and we, as responsible beings, should know that cell phone use should not be allowed while driving because it will take our attention from the road (Benton). Conclusion

Cell phone use as well as receiving important calls or responding to important texts messages are considered as the number one distraction factor while driving a car which leads to car accidents. With this very important issue supported by evidences, cell phone use must therefore be restricted while . If a certain person receives a call while driving, he/she should stop the car on the roadside before he/she should receive the call to avoid the risk of accident. Works Cited Benton, Joe. “Cell Phone No. 1 Driver Distraction. ” 2006.

We believe that adults should have the right to make their own decision about the consumption of alcohol. 18 is the age of adulthood in the United States: you are eligible to vote, you can legally purchase cigarettes, you are eligible for the military draft – which includes that you are willing to die for this country-, you can sign contract, get married and you are even able to serve on a jury.

So why can’t someone at the age of eighteen not drink alcohol? There is a study that shows there are fewer road accidents due to alcohol in countries where the minimum age for alcohol consumption is 18 years. Despite the fact that in 1984 the United States defined the minimum legal drinking age at 21 years old, its rate of traffic accidents decreased less than that of European countries during the 1980s. Moreover, allowing 18- to 20-year-olds to drink alcohol in regulated environments with supervision would decrease unsafe drinking activity.

Prohibiting this age group from drinking in bars, restaurants, and other licensed locations causes them to drink in unsupervised places such as fraternity houses or house parties where they may be more prone to binge drinking and other unsafe behavior. We can also prove that high non-compliance with minimum legal drinking age 21 promotes general disrespect and non-compliance with other areas of US law.

In fact, MLDA 21 encourages young adults to acquire and use false identification documents to procure alcohol. In this era of national security concerns, including terrorism, illegal immigration, and other threats, it would be better to have fewer fake IDs in circulation and more respect for the law. Finally, lowering MLDA 21 would be good for the economy. More people would legally be able to drink in bars, restaurants, and other licensed establishments. Revenue would increase for private business owners, and greater amounts of tax revenue would be collected by the government.