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Internal

Operations

MGMT-6081

SCM

Student Name (As it appears in the class list)

Student Number

Section

Module 08 – Chapter 12

Forecasting

Super Hog

Motorcycles

A motorcycle dealer in the Ottawa area wants to be able to accurately forecast the

demand for the “Super Hog” motorcycle during the next month. From the sales records,

the dealer has accumulated data in the following table for the past year.

Month

Motorcycle Sales

January

10

February

8

March

11

April

9

May

8

June

13

July

11

August

12

September

13

October

11

November

15

December

17

A.

Compute a three month moving average forecast of demand for April through

January

(of the next year)

Show your calculations

B.

Compute a five-month moving average forecast for June through January (

of the

next year

).

Show your calculations

C.

Compare the two forecasts computed in parts A and B using MAD

(Mean Average

Deviation).

a.

Which one should the dealer use for January of next year? Why?

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