Future

The Future of Cruise Industry Abstract Cruise industry has rapidly developing since 1990s; it becomes not only as transportation tool, but a modern way of travel and even lifestyle. It is regarded as ‘floating resorts’. This journal article focuses on the future development of cruising industry.

It examines cruise industry on five main factors: the structure of the industry: high concentration and enter of Low-Cost cruise lines; the potential customers: whether aging population or young generation would be the major group of consumers; destinations and markets: define the most popular destinations and core markets, as well as the exploration of new markets and destinations; the new innovation of sea-based apartment, the safety and security issues, which significant raised concern recently; and whether the cruise industry is environmental sustainable.

Three key sources are used to compare and contrast the viewpoints: Hospitality 2010, which is written by Dr. Cetron; Cruise Ship Tourism, written by Dr. Dowling; and the Cruise Ship Experience, written by Dr. Douglas. These key sources are very up-to-date and reliable, the key authors are admitted as experts whether in the business or academic field, their works are in line with the topic. This journal article identifies current situation and the future developing trends of the cruise industry. It concludes that he cruise industry has a very bright future if proper measurements and regulation are being introduced and well implemented.

Nowadays, Cruise industry is concerned as the most rapid growing sector in hospitality industry, which the business is expanding by 8 percent annually. In some specific area such as Alaska and Caribbean, it remains the top industry that contributes to the economy. Cruising business is expanding and changing world-wide; however, the industry is little understood by the society. Today, ships are not viewed as a means of transport but as floating resorts. Mega ships were introduced to carry more than 5,000 people; new ports on call and destinations are been discovered and on the way of developing the business.

However, accomplished by the booming of the industry, several issues have been risen concerns on. This journal article will discuss six issues relate to the developing trends of cruise industry: the structure of the industry and further trends; the potential passengers; the existing and potential markets and destinations; the sea-based apartment—will it be popular; the concern of safety and security which is considered as primary factor due to the terrorist attacks; and the environmental issue: should corporations be self-guarded or forced to implement regulations.

The thesis statement of the article is that cruise industry will overcome the difficulties and have a fortunate future. The secondary research is based on both quantitative and qualitative data, include case studies, statistics and in-depth interviews. To support the secondary data, a primary research was conducted in the form of questionnaire. The sample gathered fourty international students that majoring in hospitality and tourism management in Sydney. The sample was gained from the Carrick College, International College of Management, Sydney and Holmes College.

The nationalities are varies, include Sweden, Norwegian, Australian, Japanese, Korean and Chinese. The questionnaire combines ‘Yes or No’ questions, multiple choices and short answers. These questions are in line with secondary data that discussed in the journal article, identify whether people are interested and willing to experience cruising in the future. The aim of primary research is to explore whether the responses are support or against Dr Dowling (2006), Dr. Cetron (2006) and Dr. Douglas (2004)’ findings. Literature Review

Ideas from two key sources are used to compare and contrast in this journal article. The first key source is chapter 8 from Hospitality 2010, which is written by Dr. Marvin J. Cetron, who is a professional forecaster for over 40 years admitted both by corporate and American government. He is admitted as an expert in the fields of technological forecasting, strategic planning, technology assessment, R&D planning, resource allocation, economics, marketing, and the behavioral sciences. Dr. Cetron has written 36 books, numerous articles and papers.

His most popular works are future orientated. Hospitality 2010 is written in the form of business report and is considered American biased (Hall, 2007); Chapter 8 explores most of the aspects of cruising industry briefly which brought out discussion. It examines potential trends and problems such as waste management, aging population and future destinations that are particularly useful for this journal article. Dr. Ross K. Dowling is Foundation Professor and Head of Tourism in the School of Marketing, Tourism and Leisure, Faculty of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Western Australia.

Professor Dowling is an international speaker, author, researcher and consultant on tourism with over 200 publications. He is passionate about Cruise Industry and he has lectured on board Silver Cloud around the east coast of Australia and New Zealand. The second source: Cruise Ship Tourism is the first comprehensive academic book to raise the awareness of cruise industry. It analyses current status of cruise industry and investigates a number of industry issues and predicts the future trends. This book gives clear direction from academic viewpoint. The third key source is The Cruise Experience written by Dr.

Norman Douglas and Dr. Ngaire Douglas. Dr. Norman Douglas is Director of Pacific Profile and has taught at the University of New South Wales, the University of the South Pacific, Fiji and the University of Hawai’i. Dr. Ngaire Douglas is Associate Professor in the School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW. The Cruise Experience examines cruising today, the economic impacts of cruising, and case studies from various perspectives. The Structure of Cruise Industry No doubt, three major companies control about 80% of the cruise market worldwide.

The top three companies are Carnival Corporation, Royal Caribbean and Star Cruise. While the cruise industry’s capacity is increasing, the number of cruise companies is shirking. Douglas (2004) states that the move towards oligopoly will continually contribute to the disappearance of the mid-sized independent cruise companies which are rating from three-to-four star; only companies which have their own niche market or have strong economic background will survive. Furthermore, the Carnival Corporation aims not only the ‘world leading cruise lines’, but ‘the world only cruise line’.

It means more cruise lines would likely be merged in the future; the concentration in the industry is possibly to increase even further (Dowling, 2006). Klein (2002) identifies bankruptcies as another reason for high concentration of the industry. In 2000 and 2001, seven cruise companies have ceased operations, include Premier Cruises, Commodore Cruise Line, Cape Canaveral Cruise Line and World Cruise Company, which eliminated more than 7,000 berths. Klein (2002) observes that the cruise industry’s expansion would be greater if the bankruptcies were not happened. Besides concentration that highly emphasised by experts, Dr.

Dowling (2006) argues that Low Cost Cruising would make a significant growth of the industry. For example, Low Budget ‘no-frills’ style airlines had made a success in 2000s, such as Midway Airlines and SunJet Airlines. In 2005, the founder of one of the Low Cost airlines, EasyJet, has started a Low Cost no frills cruise line EasyCruise in Europe, targeted at younger generation between 20 and 40 years old; more than half of the customers are British, followed by Americans, Germans and the Swiss. Dr. Dowling (2006) asserts that there will be a rapidly growing niche market for low cost cruises. Potential Passengers

According to Dr. Dowling (2006), a recent survey has shown that the passengers are becoming more youthful and are demanding more active itineraries. Take example of Alaska, the average age of passengers has fallen from 65 to 50 during 2004-2005. Furthermore, Dr. Dowling (2006) claims that family orientated cruises is becoming increasingly popular and will become a major niche market in future. Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA, 2004) showed 16% of cruisers bring children under age of 18 years sailed on their member line ships in 2004, which estimated number of more than one million. Dr.

Cetron (2006) agrees that younger travelers form a profitable market for family cruising; to build up brand loyalty is one of the biggest advantages of catering them, cruise companies considered them as the most profitable cruisers for their later lives. Dr. Dowling (2006) observes that compare to younger generation, the number of full-time retirees is declining due to the fact that mid-career baby boomers now make up the largest market for cruises of 42%. In contrast, Dr. Cetron (2006) strongly argued that due to the fact that people are living longer and growing older on average, these people make up a growing segment of the cruise market.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, people over 65 were only 8% of the population in 1950 in the developed world, but 15% in 2000 and will be 27% in 2050. In some countries like Japan, the number will climb up to 37%. Secondly, senior generation take the longest and most luxurious cruises. Different from family and budget-minded passengers, elder people prefer small ships and regardless of the money just to have good times. They would be very profitable for cruise operators. Thirdly, Dr.

Cetron (2006) believes that the growth of over 65 market will moderate the regular seasonality of tourism, because retirees can travel at any time; this can help cruise operators to adjust their cash flow. In addition, some cruise lines have already targeted retirees as core market and adjust their service to suit the market; Dr. Cetron (2006) recommends this market has potential consuming strength that could definitely increase revenue for the cruise company; others should follow their lead. New Markets and Destinations A number of new markets and destinations are rapidly recognised in the cruise sector.

Dr. Cetron (2006) illustrates that by 2010, China is expected to be the single largest source of international tourists in the world, displacing Americans, Japanese and Germans. He predicts that 100 million Chinese will travel globally in 2020; even 1% of them take cruise trip, the market size will be more than doubled. In the meanwhile, although Dr. Dowling (2006) concerns China as a potential market as well, he suggests more studies should be conducted before enter of the market to understand and explore the possibility to develop cruise industry in China. Another emerging cruise destination both Dr.

Cetron (2006) and Dr. Dowling (2006) have strongly emphasised is the Indian Ocean. South Africa and the Eastern African ports have already established some trade, 0. 2% of the world market, as Dr. Dowling (2006) states; the National Ports Authority is working on the development of the cruise industry in this region in order to ensure that efficient, effective services and facilities are provided to cruise liners to populate the South African coastline. As Dr. Cetron (2006) observes, cruise lines will begin to offer cruises and on board amenities suited native Indian’s taste and serve the local market.

A New Innovation: Sea-based Apartment Dr. Dowling (2006) states that another area of potential expansion in the future is the rise of service apartment ships. These type of ships represent another type of community, the service include Clinique, swimming pools, several restaurants, grocery stores tennis court, disco, book store, mini golf course and helicopter pad. Already there is one privately owned residential cruise liner, the world, which houses 110 apartments that have already sold out, running the business. The residents mainly come from Europe and the USA.

However, some apartments usually being left empty and treated as holiday homes. Dr. Dowling (2006) concludes that the possibility of whether sea-based apartment is a new opportunity for cruise lines or just a short term fashion will be identified by time. Safety and Security Anderson (2005) described security issues facing cruise industry include piracy, terrorism, drug smuggling, sexual assault and stowaways (Dowling, 2006). Piracy is a form of terrorism that exists for a long time. However, it has been largely ignored by the community due to the frequency of attacks. Dr.

Dowling (2006) demonstrates the main cruise ships routes of piracy include the Straits and Malacca, the Red Sea and Indonesian and Malaysian waters. Another issue which has continually raising the concern is terrorism, despite of the infrequency of attack of cruise lines. The Caribbean has been identified as a major area of terrorist attack. Dr. Dowling (2006) detected that terrorist incidents within the cruise industry has been very rare, which is less than 2% of all terrorist attacks in the last thirty years. It may due to difficulty of accessibility and the specialist skills compare the way to attack land-based targets (Chalk, 2002).

Dr. Cetron (2006) argued that cruise ships are ideal targets for terrorists who are willing to sacrifice themselves as they can take large number of people with them. The second reason is, as the government facilities and land-based buildings are becoming harder to attack, cruise ships are currently facing great risk. Furthermore, 94 percent of American rate the hotel safety as a primary factor in order to decide where to stay (Cetron, 2006). Regarding cruises as floating hotels, terrorism becomes a top concern for passengers. Both Dr. Cetron (2006) and Dr.

Dowling (2006) mentioned the highjack of the Italian cruise liner “Achille Lauro” in 1985, which a US citizen was killed. Great emphasis of improving passengers’ safety and security was implemented immediately after the attack. Even though, bomb threats on board have never stopped, accomplished by people being killed. Recently, The International Ship and Port Safety (ISPS) Code was fully implemented in order to control the situation. Dr. Dowling (2006) emphasises US and Australia have higher security measures than other countries to prevent terrorist attacks on maritime targets.

In addition, Australia has some of the most secure ports in the world including the USA. Dr. Dowling (2006) concludes that there is little the industry can do to prevent terrorism, however, it can be minimised through better security both at sea and in port. In addition, Dr. Cetron predicts that the legislation will be much tighter in the future regarding to the prevention of terrorism on board. Environmental Sustainability: Environmental Policy Challenges The question has been raised that whether cruise industry is environment sustainable or not. As the primary survey shows, environmental issues are not being realised seriously by society.

Surprisingly, 74 percent of the sample responded with no clue of what environmental impact the cruise industry would cause, which is very shock. In fact, the destinations that located in biodiversity hotspots are being highly concerned as they have the most diverse and threatened environments on Earth. The destinations include the Caribbean, The Mediterranean, Western Mexico, the Panama Canal Zone and the South Pacific. Over the last 40 years, the governments have already made some progress and implementing environmentally responsible legislation and policy guidelines.

However, Furger (1997); Freeman (1997); Luke (1997) and Sinclair (1997) argues that “current debate shows ongoing progress will not be accomplished by government intervention alone” (cited in Dowling, 2006). To examine whether self-regulation and voluntary guidelines or control regulation is more suitable for the cruise industry, two case studies from Juneau, Alaska, USA and Sydney, NSW, Australia are examined in the article. No doubt, the state of Alaska has the strictest regulations for cruise ships in the world, as the state regards the industry as primary factor that contribute to the local economy.

The sewage and grey water discharge are especially strict in Juneau. Dr. Dowling (2006) states The Clean Water Act in the USA allows sewage to be dumped into the ocean beyond 3 miles of shore but not navigable water. Grey Water can be discharged anywhere in the USA but Alaska and the Great Lakes. Once the legislation has set, cruise companies responded voluntarily and showed their enthusiasm to go beyond compliance, which effect their marketing, reputation and economic value. Their strategies include best practice management, eco-labelling and green marketing.

In the meanwhile, innovative technology in the form of advanced on-board wastewater treatment facilities was introduced by the cruise industry that is commonly applied to the cruise ships today. However, Dr. Klein (2002) argues that environmental responsibility can never voluntarily assumed due to the disappointed history. Dr. Klein (2002) describes the pattern that most industry innovations follow is, deny their faulty behaviour, persuade government to not implement regulations, resist enforcement, and after being caught, announce new company’s regulations.

He maintains that self-regulation is the way cruise companies to escape from being caught. The situation in Sydney is a reverse of Juneau, where ‘regulation stifles innovation and discourages beyond compliance behaviour’ (Dr. Dowling, 2006). The legislation of ‘no-discharge’ in Sydney has made shipping agents frustrated. In Juneau, those ships with the state-of-art wastewater systems can discharge continuously cannot make exceptions from no-discharge policy applies at Sydney Harbour.

To reply these unhappy operators, Sydney ports argue that even advanced wastewater system installed in cruises, produce still excess nutrients (Sydney waterways, 2003). However, no-charge policy has made the new system become a financial liability to cruise companies. They have to afford the cost of installing and operating the system but still have to pay for sewage disposal. To reduce the cost, cruise companies use older ships with older technologies instead of new ships in Australia; they argue that the no-charge policy is actually posing a degree of harm to the environment, which because older ships poses even more environmental hazards.

In summary, experts support various viewpoints: Sinclair (1997) noted that mix of policy mechanisms and technological innovation should be involved; Klein (2002) asserts the industry requires strong legislations to control the corporations’ behaviour; on the other hand, Rondinelli (2000) believes more industry self-regulation would work. The key author Dr. Dowling (2006) concludes that due to the failure of corporations to build up their credibility and continually being caught and charged, cruise companies should not be trusted by self-regulation; Dr.

Dowling (2006) observes strong legislation would best control the disposal issue and maintains environmental sustainability efficiently. Conclusion It is obvious cruise industry is big business; not only for cruise operators, but valuable for many nations, cities, ports and communities. Just in North American region in 2004, it provided 135,000 jobs and contributed US$30 billion on the US economy, which increased more than 18% over the previous year.

The business structure will be very similar to the current airline industry, which dominate by oligopolists but small growing sector for Low Cost cruises; and these large companies might implement predation strategy, increase the frequency of sailing routes and depress the prices to drive Cost cruises out, like what American Airline did in 1990s. Secondly, the passengers will not only be concentrated on elder generation, but involved all age groups; different cruise lines will particularly target different groups when considering purchase new vessels and planning market strategies.

Thirdly, the progress of developing cruise industry in developing countries is on their ways, the future markets and destinations will not be only in developed nations, but spread globally. Next, the trend of sea-based apartment is difficult to predict, but due to the luxury and extremely high price of purchasing, one thing cannot deny that it is entertain for upper class only. Furthermore, due to the continue impact from terrorist attack and risen concern from passengers, the policy of safety and security will be increasingly tighter with new detecting technology involved.

Lastly, the environmental sustainability issue will never be finished the discussion. In my opinion, doesn’t matter what action people take into account, when there is human activities, it will be no longer sustainability. However, due to the fact that it is merely impossible for human being to stop discovering the Earth, what government and non-profitable orgnisations can do is to minimise our influence to the environment, establish more policies to regulate and strict activities with monitoring, because I believe deeply that self-regulation will never work, as long as the improper discharge of wastes can save their cost.

At the very end, I strongly believe the cruise industry will have a very bright future, for the cruise operators, the consumers, the employment, the society and the governments. References Cetron, M. (2006). Hospitality 2010— the Future of Hospitality and Travel. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall Dowling, R. K. (2006). Cruise Ship Tourism. London: CABI. Douglas, N. & Douglas, N. (2004). The Cruise Experience – Global and Regional Issues in Cruising. London: CABI. Ebersold, W. B. Business Briefing: Global Cruise– Cruise Industry in Figures. 2004). [Online]. Available: http://www. touchbriefings. com/pdf/858/ebersold. pdf [Accessed 2008, April 1]. Klein, A. R. (2002). Cuise Ship Blues—The Underside of the Industry. Canada: New Society Publishers Ye, W. China’s Cruise Economy is Ready to Bloom. (2007). [Online]. Available: http://www. ccyia. com/english/News_View. asp? NewsID=154 [Accessed 2008, March 31]. Choi, C. Q. (2007, March 25). Cruise Lines Face More Policing of Waste Disposal. The New York Times. P5. Appendix Survey on Cruise Industry 1. Have you ever been taken a cruise trip?

Yes No 2. Are you willing to take a cruise trip in the future? Yes No Not sure 3. Which type of cruise do you prefer? A. Small luxury ships with personalised service B. Big ships, 1000 – 2000 passengers, probably need to Queue for amenities/facilities C. Budgeted cruise trip 4. Who would you likely to travel with? A. Friends B. Family C. Alone 5. How many days do you prefer to spend on cruising? A. 3 days B. 3 to 7 days C. 14 days D. A month 6. What is your spending expectation during the stay on a cruise?

A. AU$50 to 100 B. AU$100 To 300 C. More than AU$300 7. Is there any destinations you wish to visit? Eg, the Caribbean, Alaska, Australia round trip, Antarctic, Malaysia/Indonesia, China 8. Why you choose cruise trips but not land-based hotels/resorts? Give one or more reasons. 9. What is the most important factor that you consider when choosing a route or cruise line? 10. Do you know the cruise lines are damaging the environment especially the marines? If yes, what things should be done to prevent/reduce the impact of cruise industry?

The cashflow forecast for my business shows that I expect to earn  27753 in a year. However this can be wrong because the sales and payments figures are all estimations, which could affect my figures by either increasing or decreasing the figures. As my sales figures are all predictions, it can affect my other figures e. g. net cash flow. If you look at June and July it shows that Mcbains will have not enough money coming in to cover my expenses going out, which is why I have a negative forecast between those months.

Incorrect cashflow forecasting may have insufficient liquid assets for the day to day operation of Mcbains. Of this is the problem then I will find it hard to pay to my suppliers. To prevent any more loss of money during those months, I can make our promotion strategies stronger e. g. do more posters and leaflets so that the sales will increase to cover my expenses in that period. I can also do special promotion that will attract people to Mcbains e. g. free special toys for children or coupons to get the sandwiches cheap.

Another way to prevent loss is to reduce my stock during those months, which will save me money. The reason why I have a negative cashflow during the summer period is because more people go abroad for holidays, which can also be seen from the sales figures. The sales figures clearly show that in the summer period (June – July); I will decrease sales; however this again is only a prediction of figures. Mcbains sales and earnings will increase in the winter – spring period because there are more people in the area were I am located at.

This is due for a number of reasons e. g. celebrations (Christmas), sales (January sale) and less people going on holidays. My expenses for my electricity will decrease in the summer period (June – August) because there will be less use of electricity compared in the winter period (Sept – Dec). I also am not getting a loan from the bank because I have enough starting capital to start Mcbains at  15000. During the end of the year for Mcbains, I will be able to make comparisons between the predicted figures in the cashflow forecast and those which actually occurred.

This will help me then find out were there was problems which have occurred. This will again help me to identify possible reasons for any differences between the two sets of figures e. g. overpayment was made. This shows that if I keep monitoring the cashflow will allow efficient cashflow in Mcbains. Also notifying my competitor’s cashflow will give me the advantage for me because I can then improve what they are bad at. If you look at my alternative ratios of my competitors (look at my evaluating my business plan section), it shows that I need to do a lot of work before I get to their stage.

The planning process is very important because it clarifies the aims and improves the performance for Mcbains. Producing a cashflow forecast is a key part of the planning process because it is a document concerned with the future of Mcbains. Profit and Loss Account Mcbains will earn  85358 in our starting year. This was calculated by adding each month’s sales revenue. The account also helps the balance sheet to determine if both sheet and account will balance. The gross profit shows what I have taken out from my stock.

It also shows that the closing stock might not be accurate because the stock figures from the cash flow are an estimate. The way that I got my purchase figure from the stock from the cashflow forecast, however the first month of the stock is the opening stock figure (Jan – 900), so you then add the rest of the stock figures which adds to 9900. The profit and loss account helps Mcbains to see how much profit I have made in the end of the year. This also helps me because I can use the other figures from previous year to see if I am making a profit or loss in profit.

This will help me to improve Mcbains weak points. If you look at my break even chart, it shows that I will not break even in the first two years, which shows that I will not make a profit during that period. The account can be used to see how well I have controlled the overheads e. g. if the gross profit is larger than the net profit, this will show that Mcbains overheads is high. I can use the account to measure the growth of Mcbains. I can use previous years account figures to see if Mcbains is growing and determine where I can make more improvements to the business.

The disadvantage of the profit and loss account is that I can not use it to see what will happen in the future, however it shows what has happened in the past. But the cashflow forecast and budgets can help me to predict the future of Mcbains performance. Again the account can help me by showing possible trends in the future by looking at the accounts in the long term (5 years) e. g. figures might get high for Mcbains because as more people demand for healthier food.

TIME Magazine, titled ” The Future of Oil” by author Bryan Walsh which is a senior writer for TIME magazine, covering energy, environment and diseases infers and appraises the future of oil in the aspect of economy, value, scarcity and finding its alternatives. The author reveals and reviews the importance of oils to global economy as well as the urgency on finding another replacement for oil in order to flee the world from over-relying on this non-renewable natural resources.

This facts have agonized the world and people starts concerning nice decades ago when people found that the oil is not renewable and not reusable. SUMMARY In the first part of the article, the author reviews the discovery of new plentiful oil sources in the Atlantic Ocean 180 miles east of ROI De Jeanine could producers,OHO barrels of crude a day, yet it is still disproportional to the demand all around the world.

Nevertheless, the latest advanced technologies applied on automobiles and recession of economy in US have temporary shed the demand oil, the rapid growth in other countries like China, India and certain developing countries have equalize gain the demand and supply graph back to the extreme level. These bring a phenomena that plentiful but expensive oil in the market. The price of oil will still be hardly to drop. Moreover, there is still no other substitute available for oil, it is prone to be big booms and deep busts, taking the global economy along with it.

When the global economy heats up, demand for oil rises, boosting the price and encouraging producers to pump more. Inevitably those high prices eat into economic growth and reduce demand Just as suppliers are overproducing. Prices crash, and the cycle starts all over again. However, the environmental issues and costs have to be brought to be concerned. The catastrophic oil spill accident happened in the Gulf of Mexico had brought huge impact to the environment and it needs decades to recover.

Yet, the demand of oil is never stop, supply of oil must be ideally inexhaustible to the world. People are facing the more challenging and dangerous tasks while getting the unconventional oil to satisfy the demand of oil. Hence, the best solution is still to develop other kind of energy alternative to break temporally of oil for environmental, economy and future. Analysis of the Presentation The first element of the article “The Future of Oil” written by Bryan Walls in April 2012 that is going to be discusses will be the author’s purpose of intent.

From the article, the author’s purpose is to inform the audience about the current amount of available crude left and the number of production of barrels of oil per day which to fulfill the unlimited demand from the international market, and to predict that the oil which supports our daily transportation will be getting expensive in the future and it will be much more polluting in order to process the oil as the process is destructive to the environment. The second element to be discusses will be the author’s point of view.

As what have written before, since the author have stated that the price of oil becomes expensive (Bryan Walls, 2012). Thus the author suggests that it will be important to hold as more researches and developments of carbon-free alternatives such as wind power, solar power, nuclear power and befouls as possible now in order to reach better technology in fuel-efficiency which is believed potential to reduce the burden of the high price of oil in our daily life later. Next, the author’s tone in writing the article will be another element to be discusses where a tone fleets the author’s feeling and attitude towards the subject.

Audience can feel the author’s tone was excited when he describe on the size of the floating oil-production platform deck in Atlantic, Brazil which he wrote ” The platform deck is so big you could play the Super Bowl on it, if not for the nest for the interlocking pipes and valves that circulate oil, methane and steam throughout the ship. ” (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 2 line 5-7). The author shows the feeling of regret too from his word “A combination of recession, conservation and improved auto efficiency has eloped the U.

S. Shed demand impressively. But demand in China, India and other developing nations have replaced it. Result: plentiful but expensive oil that translate into painfully high gas prices. ” (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 5 line 3-5). Other than that, the author’s worry can be found from the written “The new supplies are for the most part more expensive than traditional oil from places like the Middle Each, sometimes significantly so. They are often dirtier, with higher risks of accidents. (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 8 line 2-4). The author also wows the feeling of sarcastic and contradiction when he wrote muff may not like Exxon because of the pump price or its oversize profits, but how much love do you have for autocratic poetasters like Iran or Russia? Oxen’s growth trickles down; the oil-and-gas industry created 9% of all new Jobs last year, according to a report by the World Economic Forum, even as oil companies booked multimillion-dollar profits. ” (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 15 line 5-9).

The author used the tone sarcastic once again later in his word “Low oil prices in the sass lulled U. S. Auto companies into disastrous complacency; they had dew efficient models available when oil turned expensive. ” (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 18 line 5-6). Other than all of the above, the author used the tone of exaggerate when he describing the amount of available extreme oil, “Extreme oil meaner there will still be enough?more than 1 trillion barrels by one estimate?to keep cooking the planet if we decide to burn it all. (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 25 line 7-8). In addition, the author used some fact information instead of opinion sentences teen the paragraphs in the article; which a fact is the statement that can be proven right or wrong, and an opinion is the statement of feeling that cannot be proven right or wrong (Dahlia, Critique Essay). The author stated that since there is increase in crude collecting activities which requires drilling technology now thus “Tight oil has helped revivalist the American drilling industry. (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 11 line 1). Besides that, the author also stated that U. S. ‘s import of liquid fuels have decreased from 60% in year 2005 to 45% in last year, if domestic oil production continues to rise, U. S could move toward to energy independence (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 12). Other than that, he also included fact information in his article, written that “There is no substitute for economy along with it. (Bryan Walsh, The Future of Oil, paragraph 17). Last of all, the author have referred to other’s speeches and opinions such as from President Obama, energy expert–Michael Clare, state geologist of Text–Scott Tinker, and chief economist at EIA?Afterbirth, which he have written into his article “The Future of Oil” but yet he do not enclose the links and quote them to the references or origins which e have used as materials, thus his scholarly is considered as unclear.

RESPONSE TO THE PRESENTATION In the article “The Future of Oil”, author Bryan Walsh has used many statistics and data to strengthen the persuasiveness of his view to audience, but he fails to indicate the exact sources of certain data. Maybe some of these data are very common to local people, example the average price of oil last year in US, “Last year the average cost for a gallon of unleaded was $3. 51, the highest on record, up from $2. 90 a year before. On March 26 the national average was$3. 90″(Bryan, 2012), but that was uncommon to reader from other area.

He actually should include the sources of those data in order to make his article to be more convincing. The same problem occurs on the information on the production of crude barrels daily by Petrol’s in Atlantic Ocean. The author stated the amount of crude produced, but he did not mention where he got the data from. Instead, these might bring some doubts and seems exaggerating to the audience. Nevertheless, in this article, Bryan Walsh focuses more on the impact of oil to US economy,but hectically provides sufficient facts while explaining the influence of oil to the global future economy.

He states and redirects US might be able to achieve energy independence as more sophisticated hydraulic fracturing and horizontal trinitrotoluene’s applied to open up reserves of oil which previously considered unobtainable, but he does agree also that more production of oil in US does not really help to calm the increasing global oil demand. He states “Energy security is fine, but it doesn’t have that much meaning in a globalizes economy,” says Guy Caruso, a former head of the EIA (Bryan, 2012).

This is very true that no matter how much new and unconventional oils are being discovered, the world will never satisfy from the supplies. Nonetheless, Bryan Walsh, in his article, besides economy issues, he does talk about the impact of producing oil to the environment, the true cost to the environment which he intends to warn people the consequences and the future challenge of producing oil. He does provide some facts and sayings of certain representative to attract reader’s attention on this serious issue.

Example”elf you think cleaning up an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was tough, try doing it in the remote, forbidding Arctic. But even greater than the immediate environmental danger posed by unconventional oil is the larger risk to the climate. “(Bryan, 2012). However, he fails to picture out how destructive the consequences and negative effect to the environmental. Instead, he provides saying like “There’s enough carbon there to create a totally different planet,” says James Hansen, a NASA climatologist and activist (Bryan, 2012) without explaining how different planet would it be.

At the last part of the article, author Bryan Walsh has clarified his view on the future of oil. He denotes that new coming sources and unconventional oil does not really help to solve the fundamental problem. He does need of oil. He includes some facts to show the effort of people to increase the efficiency in order to waste the energy sources. “Beam’s push to increase corporate average fuel-efficiency standards for vehicles to 55 m. P. G. By 2025 is vital”(Bryan, 2012).

The Dubai Islamic Economy Development Centre and Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in partnership with Thomson Reuters, are organizing the on October 11-12, 2016 at Madinat Jumeirah in Dubai, aiming to bring out the full potential of the growing Islamic economy. Held under the patronage of HH Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, GIES is a key annual forum, where industry leaders, policymakers, business professionals, and others converge to discuss major trends and issues in Islamic economy. Titled “Inspiring Change,” GIES 2016 features six sessions covering global trends shaping the Islamic economy, Islamic finance, Islamic economy startups, and in Islamic finance among others. In addition to these, the Summit will also host discussions on specific Islamic economic sectors like Halal products, modest fashion, family tourism etc., and offer networking opportunities.

The Summit also plays host to The Islamic Economy Awards, which recognize innovative business initiatives and ideas contributing to the “social and economic welfare of the Muslim population.” Further, the startup finalists of the an annual challenge that recognizes and supports promising SMEs belonging to digital sector of Islamic economy, will present their ventures in a business showcase session at GIES 2016. Mohammed Badri, MD, International Halal Acc. Forum, Mudassir Sheikha, co-founder, Clare Woodcraft, CEO, Emirates Foundation, are a few speakers sharing insights at the forum. Dubai Islamic Bank and Fitch Ratings are among the conference partners.

There are many different theories about the future, some people think that god has planned our future, but other people think that we are in control of our own future, I personally think the same. I have done some research on these theories, which follows. How many times in your life have you doubted the power of God showing in your life? How many times have you said that is this is a problem that even God cannot take care of? How many times have you remained discouraged because it did not seem that the power of the most high God was shinning through you life?

Well, first , lets take a look at a certain Bible verse that should be able to reassure anyone that God is all powerful and very much in charge of this earth. ” He hath made the earth by His power, He hath established the world by His wisdom, and hath stretched out the heaven by His understanding. ” Here we see that fact that God not only created the world that we now live on, but this particular Bible verse gives us three important facts about God: Power, Wisdom and Understanding.

Just take a look at the verse, it tells us that that earth was made by His power, established by His wisdom and that the heaven was made by His understanding. What other proof do you need to realize that a God that is this great is more then capable to take care of you and allow himself to be manifested in your life? A recent example of this is the tsunami in china this shows that god is very much in control of our life. People with a strong character are able to make easier their own choices.

The shaping of the character depends to the unique nature of a man, environment, family, education etc. Not all people have the same personality, character and nature. So not everyone can make his/her own choice at same level. Fate and destiny-Questions always arise when one or the other is mentioned. Can we rebel against our own destiny? Can we truly decide the path we want to take in life? These are questions with no definite or final answer. Nevertheless, everything depends on our determination, our strength to defeat the obstacles we meet on our life’s journey.

A lot of successful and driven people in many varied fields confess that fate seems to be against them at the launch of their career. Most of them lived completely different lives before they achieved success, and they are proud to remember those times. It was hard, many successful folks say, but nothing could have held them back as they strove to the best. They also admit that they never dared dream they would be so famous or successful. All these facts make us wonder whether an apparently pre-established fate can be modified or completely changed.

And if we indeed can change fate, how can we demonstrate what we’re capable of? Could there be a way to modify the data, which composes the abstract book of life, just as easy as correcting something on a computer? And if that holds true, how do we know that there wasn’t a mistake in the first place, and our determination does not do more than merely correct it? After this research I have come to the conclusion that god controls our future, and not us. Thanks for listening today ladies and gentlemen and I bid you goodday.

A. P. English September 22, 2012 No Future Without the Past By: Bernice Mojica “But the past is past; why moralize upon it? Forget it. See, yon bright sun has forgotten it all, and the blue sea, and the blue sky; these have turned over new leaves. ” “Because they have no memory,” he dejectedly replied; “because they are not human. ” “But these mild trades that now fan your cheek, Don Benito, do they not come with a human-like healing to you? Warm friends, steadfast friends are the trades. “With their steadfastness they but waft me to my tomb, Senor,” was the foreboding response. “You are saved, Don Benito,” cried Captain Delano, more and more astonished and pained; “you are saved; what has cast such a shadow upon you? ” “The Negro. ” (pg. 75) -Melville, Herman. Benito Cereno. New York: Dover Publications, Inc. , 1990 Don Benito Cereno’s epiphany over the mistake of underestimating the Negroes keeps him moralized upon the past, rather than accepting his wrong doings and modifying them into optimistic beneficial accomplishments.

To prove that his way of thinking is keeping him from moving on, Captain Delano advices him that, “the past is past; why moralize upon it? ” Delano is letting him know that he can’t hold himself back from a great future based on a rotten past. Although selfishness is looked upon as a sinful thought, pleasing one’s self is still considered a good intention. Delano comforts Cereno by indirectly assuring him that he should never regret what has been done, because during the moment of that action, there was always a reasonable purpose to be followed.

Those experiences taught him how to become a better human being; hence, if he didn’t go through any of that, he would not have the current regretful feelings he has at the end of the novel. Delano alludes to Benito that if the world is able to metamorphose, then so can he; “See, yon bright sun has forgotten it all, and the blue sea, and the blue sky; these have turned over new leaves. ” These are all forms of our dynamic nature which juxtapose Benito’s static character. Don

Benito comes to realize that the population he had once tortured is the same as those who have morally and mentally saved him. This is translated when Captain Delano asks him, “you are saved; what has cast such a shadow upon you? ” and Cereno replies that “the Negro” is what has cast the shadow upon him. The Negroes aboard the San Dominick represent “blackness”. Therefore, Cereno is implying that blackness is the evil within human nature, which the black ethnic group metaphorically represents.

Blackness is a connotation of an actual color, and in this case, it is also the live image of what us humans believe stands for worthlessness and diabolic. This comparison is an oxymoron to what Cereno is referring to. If you recall, Cereno had stated that he was saved because of this blackness; which I had just mentioned was unholy. This contradiction establishes how there is no future without the past; how you cannot grow without a base to keep yourself standing. There is no need for change if there is nothing destructive keeping you from reaching your goals.

Cereno believes he himself was the destructiveness keeping the Negroes from fulfilling their wishes of being able to see their families again. This brings about the empathy that the reader feels towards him in the end. With this passage being at the end of the novel, it clearly exhibits a stable theme for the novel as a whole. Race seems to be the common denominator throughout the story. This is supported by the fact that it was written during the 1850’s; when slavery was most popular.

Melville seems to realize that this sort of power over other humans was morally wrong and he did not agree with what was socially acceptable. Our generations have been taught that we should never judge a book by its cover, therefore, we should not judge a man by his color. You should never underestimate a man based on what he doesn’t have, but rather estimate his power based on what he does have. Now that Don Benito Cereno comes to terms with the equality of all men, he took the first step into admitting his mistakes and chooses to follow a leader rather than being one.

According to Kant metaphysics is the “occupation of reason with itself”. In more concrete terms, it is the mind making logical connections between a priori concepts and coming to an objective truth thereby, without reference to experience.[1] The question posed by him in the Prolegomena is whether such an objective truth is at all possible. The conclusion derived in the end is that there is indeed such an objective truth, which is effected through pure reason. But equally important in the assertion is that such metaphysics is beyond human understanding.

The title “Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics” suggests that Kant does indeed anticipate an irrefutable metaphysics to be in the grasp of men in the future, but he never makes such a claim in the text itself. The thing that Kant aimed for was clarity in the field of metaphysical endeavor, and this is the ‘future metaphysics’. ‘Future’ can be interpreted in two ways here. First in the sense already suggested, so that metaphysical thinking is founded on a scientific basis, in which the terms and strategies it employs are well defined. But it can also be hinting at transcendental possibility, that by which all contradictions are resolved through “pure reason”.

Scientific clarity is the aim, and thus Kant justifies the labor involved in Critique Of Pure Reason (1781), of which the Prolegomena was a sequel meant to make more accessible. He is at pains to point out that there is a moral obligation involved here. People cannot surrender themselves to unreason, because reason is the very make-up of the human, so postulates Kant. The suggestion that reason be abandoned was made by David Hume, who had spelt out a comprehensive theory of empirical skepticism.

All our knowledge is through sense perceptions, therefore are entirely subjective, and cannot be tied into an absolute whole through the application of reason. It is merely by the means of custom that we acquire a coherent worldview, he maintained.[2] Kant saw this as a capitulation to unreason. It was not just Hume’s personal viewpoint that mattered. It was indeed a wider crisis in metaphysics that he was addressing.

When Newton’s physics could not be subsumed under any metaphysics, this engendered an intellectual confusion, and Hume’s solution was that metaphysics be abandoned as impossible. Kant enjoined that it is impossible to abandon metaphysics, for man reasons by necessity. Instead of finality we must aim for metaphysical clarity, and this is absolutely contingent upon us, indeed a moral obligation. He made what seem to be boastful claims about the crucial importance of the Critique in the history of metaphysics, but a closer examination will show that it is not from conceit, but rather from moral outrage.

The true nature of metaphysics is laid out with scientific clarity in the Critique and the Prolegomena, and this is the essence that Kant wants to convey, not the final outcome. He takes Hume to task in the very opening of the Critique: Although all our knowledge begins with experience, it does not follow that it arises entirely from experience. For it is quite possible that our empirical knowledge is a compound of that which we receive through impressions and that which our own faculty of knowing (incited by impressions) supplies from itself.[3]

When considering sensual perception he first makes the distinction between a priori and a posteriori, the first suggesting an innate facility of the mind, and the second is a facility borne after the event. The second distinction is between analytical and synthetic propositions. In an analytic proposition the predicate is contained within the subject, such as “the flamingo is a bird”. In a synthetic proposition the predicate adds something new to the subject, such as “the flamingo is pink”. The pinkness is not in the definition of flamingo, but rather has to be got from observation, and therefore it is also a posteriori.

Synthetic a posteriori propositions are employed in the field of natural science. On the other hand all mathematical truths are innate, i.e. we ascertain their truth before sensory perception. They are also synthetic: when we say “3+4=7”, then ‘7’ is a new concept, not contained in either ‘3’ of ‘4’. Mathematics holds the key to metaphysics, according to Kant. It demonstrates that synthetic a priori propositions are possible, which is contrary to normal expectation. We feel that whatever is innate is necessarily analytical. We are what we are, separated from the objective natural world beyond us. Against this instinctive point of view, Kant contended that we are not passive observers of an external world separated from us, but that with our innate faculties we “synthesize” our own subjective reality.

The first stage of this synthesis is when we intuit objects in our perception. “Things in themselves” can never appear to us; we only have subjective sensory data to work with. It is a meaningless jumble of light, sound, touch, taste and smell, but then our faculty of sensibility intervenes and creates order out of this chaos. This faculty is synthetic a priori, and makes use of pure intuitions. Space is one such pure intuition. Newton had maintained that space is an external, absolute and inviolable reality. Kant counters that, no, space is pure intuition. Time is another such.

Through the faculties of sensibility we come to make a judgment of perception. Thus far it is an entirely subjective viewpoint, with no objective framework to relate to that would link our views with those of others. This is the function of our judgment of experience. It too is synthetic a priori, and links the objects of perception into a rational order that facilitates understanding. This is done through pure concepts of understanding, and causation is one of them. Through this faculty we know that one event is cause to another, and thus wise we have come across Hume’s impasse, where he could find no rational construct that could link a effect to a cause when confined to empirical sense data.[4] “Cause and effect” is thus a concept of human understanding. Such understanding is composed of components that are a priori and synthetic, and it is meant to make the world intelligible to us.

Just because the world is made intelligible, it does not imply that we do not meet contradiction. When we think we do so discursively, i.e. we think by making propositions in terms of subjects and predicates. But each subject we introduce is the predicate of another subject in an infinite chain. Because the absolute subject is beyond our grasp, discursive reason naturally leads to fallacies. In fact each truthful proposition will be found to have an equally valid refutation, which together are described as pairs of antimonies. Kant cites four cosmological antimonies, one of which places infinite space against a limited one. He goes on to show that there is no contradiction in essence. As originating in the judgment of perception space does indeed have a beginning. But as regards human understanding space is necessarily infinite. The conflict arises from metaphysics failing to distinguish the noumenal (thing in itself) from the phenomenal (as appears to human understanding).

Thus far does metaphysics gain clarity, but not finality. The human mind cannot help ponder on the questions of metaphysics, but it must come to terms with the fact that it is ‘bounded’. Human understanding is meant to make the outer world intelligible, and thus proves inadequate when the focus is redirected to the inner essence of the mind, which is the object that metaphysics must study. But the overriding lesson of metaphysics is that pure reason subsumes all. One must not despair of human reason, for one must know that it originates in pure reason and is overcome by it in the end.

Subservience to pure reason is indeed a moral obligation. Other than clarity in metaphysics, which is not suitable for all, Kant advanced his categorical imperative: “I ought never to act except in such a way that I could also will that my maxim should become a universal law.”[5] We cannot help noticing that this is only a rewording of the golden rule of Christianity: “Do unto others as you would they should do unto you.”[6] Thus through clarity in metaphysics Kant can be said to have arrived at religious doctrine too.

References

Hume, David. An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding. Ed. Eric Steinberg. Boston: Hackett Publishing, 1993.

Jeffrey, David L. A Dictionary of Biblical Tradition in English Literature. Grand Rapids, MI: Wm. B. Eerdmans Publishing, 1992.

Kant, Immanuel. Critique of Pure Reason. Trans. Werner S. Pluhar. Ed. Eric Watkins. Boston: Hackett Publishing Company, 1999.

Kant, Immanuel. Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals. Ed. Mary Gregor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998.

Kant, Immanuel. Kant’s Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics. Whitefish, MT: Kessinger Publishing, 2005.

[1] Immanuel Kant, Kant’s Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics, Whitefish, MT: Kessinger Publishing, 2005, p. 92.

[2] David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Ed. Eric Steinberg, Boston: Hackett Publishing, 1993, p. 29.

[3] Immanuel Kant, Critique of Pure Reason. Trans. Werner S. Pluhar, Ed. Eric Watkins, Boston: Hackett Publishing Company, 1999, p. 1.
[4] Hume, Enquiry, p. 49.
[5] Immanuel Kant, Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals, Ed. Mary Gregor, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998, p. 16.
[6] David L. Jeffrey, A Dictionary of Biblical Tradition in English Literature, Grand Rapids, MI: Wm. B. Eerdmans Publishing, 1992, p. 314.